The Baltimore Orioles (13-18) host the Kansas City Royals (17-16) on May 3, 2025. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FOX.
The Orioles are -115 moneyline favorites, while the Royals are -105 moneyline underdogs. The total is 9 runs, slightly juiced to the under (+100 over/-120 under).
Find my MLB betting preview, Royals vs Orioles prediction, and expert F5 pick below.
Royals vs Orioles Prediction, F5 Pick
- Royals vs Orioles Pick: Royals F5 ML (-110, BetMGM)
My Royals vs Orioles best bet is on the Royals first five innings ML. Check our live MLB odds page to find the best odds.
Royals vs Orioles Odds, Lines
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 9 -102o / -120u | -106 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 9 -102o / -120u | -110 |
Royals vs Orioles Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Kris Bubic (KCR) | Stat | RHP Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | W-L | 3-1 |
| 1.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.0 |
| 2.25 / 3.70 | ERA /xERA | 3.00 / 5.66 |
| 2.89 / 3.63 | FIP / xFIP | 5.12 / 4.44 |
| 1.14 | WHIP | 1.15 |
| 16.7% | K-BB% | 8.1% |
| 40.4% | GB% | 45.5% |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 90 |
| 101 | Location+ | 107 |
Charlie Wright’s Royals vs Orioles Betting Insights
I love Royals starting pitcher Kris Bubic.
He’s sitting at just over a strikeout per inning on the year, and his underlying plate discipline metrics suggest he’s an elite swing-and-miss guy. He’s posted a 14% swinging-strike rate and a 30.3% CSW rate through his first six starts.
Meanwhile, Baltimore’s been pitiful against left-handed pitching, ranking dead last among MLB lineups in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ against the side.
While the Orioles should feature seven right-handed hitters in the lineup on Saturday, that’s no big deal for Bubic. He has reverse platoon splits, specifically with strikeouts, where he’s striking out 26% of righties compared to 21% of lefties.
Meanwhile, Baltimore starting pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano can’t keep getting away with this.
He takes a kitchen-sink approach, has a lousy fastball, and does not have swing-and-miss stuff. Everything except his 4% walk rate suggests a subpar pitcher.
He’s somehow posted a 3.00 ERA through his first six starts, but his 5.66 Expected ERA indicates negative regression is coming.
The main red flag for Sugano is his .250 BABIP. The league-average is closer ot .300, and the righty allows an above-average amount of hard-contact and barrels. He doesn’t profile as a hit suppressor, and once those batted balls find the gaps, Sugano’s BABIP should jump a good 50 points.
Kansas City’s offense has struggled. The Royals rank in the bottom two among MLB lineups in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
However, they’ve shown some life recently, ranking in the top 15 in OPS and wOBA against the side over the past two weeks. It’s not much, but it’s a start, and I like how much contact they make.
This is an excellent spot for Bubic to post a quality start while the Royals piece together a big day in the batter’s box.
Pick: Royals F5 ML (-110, BetMGM)
