The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Houston Astros on Saturday, July 5, 2025. First pitch from Dodger Stadium is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FOX.
The Astros humiliated the Dodgers in the series opener, dropping 18 runs as Jose Altuve and Christian Walker tormented L.A. pitching. Will the Dodgers bounce back on Saturday night?
Find my MLB betting preview and Astros vs Dodgers prediction for Saturday below.
My Astros vs Dodgers Prediction
- Astros vs Dodgers picks: Astros Moneyline (+128) | Play to +115
My Astros vs Dodgers best bet is Astros moneyline with the best odds currently in BetMGM. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Astros vs Dodgers Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -174 | 8.5 -110 / -110 | +124 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +144 | 8.5 -110 / -110 | -150 |
Astros vs Dodgers Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Framber Valdez (HOU) | Stat | RHP Shohei Ohtani (LAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-4 | W-L | 0-0 |
| 2.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 2.72/ 3.78 | ERA /xERA | 2.25/ 2.05 |
| 3.01/ 3.13 | FIP / xFIP | 2.34/ 4.18 |
| 1.13 | WHIP | 1.00 |
| 15.7% | K-BB% | 12.5% |
| 60.1% | GB% | 33.3% |
| 105 | Stuff+ | 117 |
| 100 | Location+ | 93 |
Kenny Ducey’s Astros vs Dodgers Preview
Houston Astros Betting Preview
It hasn't been Framber Valdez's best season overall, but the veteran left-hander has been growing into his own over the last two months. Valdez has maintained a strikeout rate of over 26% in that span, with his Expected Batting Average taking a sharp dive from the unsightly heights they were at in May.
He's managed to bring his Expected Slugging all the way down to .349 since the calendar turned to June as well, a product of more ground balls and perhaps some pitches which are catching less of the plate. He's had some issues with walks in his last four outings, but the good news is that the Dodgers — ordinarily a patient bunch — have now walked in just 8.4% of plate appearances in the last two weeks.
Valdez looks as good as he's looked in at least a year, and he enters this outing with an excellent 29.7% strikeout rate versus the current Dodgers roster and a .209 xBA which should mean baserunners will be at a premium.
Offensively, Houston continues to excel despite missing its biggest bat, Yordan Alvarez. It ranks fifth in wRC+ over the last two weeks, putting a ton of balls in play and doing so with some level of significance with a .277 average and respectable .175 Isolated Power.
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview
The Dodgers own a .214 ISO in the last two weeks — which is far greater than respectable — but they've tailed off in the on-base department on account of their dipping walk rate and growing strikeout rate which has now hit 22% in the last 14 days.
They've been asked to do a lot, too, with L.A. carrying just three fully healthy starting pitchers. Dave Roberts is set to throw Shohei Ohtani here — and while it is indeed his birthday he's still not fully stretched out and will likely pitch two innings here. With every one of L.A.'s long relievers seeing significant work on Friday thanks to Ben Casparius' ineffective outing and a bullpen game set for Sunday, the options are rather slim.
L.A.'s bullpen ERA is merely average relative to the rest of the league in the last 30 days, and while it will have its high-leverage arms available here the lone man who can eat innings behind Ohtani is Justin Wrobleski — who is both bad and an important man to save for a bullpen game.
So, we really have no idea what to expect in terms of a plan to make it through the middle three or four innings, but it certainly lacks promise with Michael Kopech now injured and Anthony Banda and Jack Dreyer likely unavailable here.
Astros vs Dodgers Prediction, Betting Analysis
Houston's offense has been legitimately good lately, and it'll be throwing arguably its best arm on Saturday with Valdez entering on a roll — and holding solid numbers against these Dodgers.
L.A.'s been good in just about every split this year, but it's been decidedly worse — particularly from a power standpoint — against ground-ballers.
I have full faith in Valdez here — something that's actually rare for me — and I have little to no faith in L.A. behind Ohtani.
Even the Great One has looked a bit rusty in his first few outings, too, as he attempts to build back his form — and there's no guarantee he will hand the game off to his depleted bullpen in good standing.
I'll once again roll with the Astros here; they're the far safer side with a solid projection for Valdez and an offense which has had a sustainable approach, getting plenty of runners on with an influx of balls in play and some very encouraging power numbers.
Pick: Astros ML (+128)
Moneyline
As mentioned, I like Astros moneyline for tonight's clash.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm staying away from run-line bets.
Over/Under
I'm also not betting on game totals.
