The Boston Red Sox (60-51) host the Houston Astros (62-48) on August 3, 2025. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on NESN.
Oddsmakers have posted a total of 9.5 runs, with the Astros as slight road favorites (-105) and the Red Sox listed at -115.
Find my Astros vs Red Sox prediction and MLB pick below.
My Astros vs Red Sox Prediction
- Astros vs Red Sox pick: Under 9.5 (-120)
My Astros vs Red Sox best bet is on the Under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Astros vs Red Sox Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 9.5 100o / -120u | -105 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 9.5 100o / -120u | -115 |
Astros vs Red Sox Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Colton Gordon (HOU) | Stat | RHP Walker Buehler (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | W-L | 6-6 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.5 |
| 4.74 / 4.16 | ERA / xERA | 5.72 / 5.25 |
| 4.65 / 3.98 | FIP / xFIP | 5.77 / 4.74 |
| 1.42 | WHIP | 1.54 |
| 15.6% | K-BB% | 7.4% |
| 31.9% | GB% | 44.8% |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 108 | Location+ | 93 |
Astros vs Red Sox Prediction, Betting Analysis
After a 2-1 pitchers’ duel in Game 1, Saturday’s Astros vs. Red Sox matchup sets up well for another low-scoring affair.
This game fits the profile of Evan Abrams’ “Series Unders: Off Low-Scoring Games” system, which targets MLB matchups where both teams are coming off quiet offensive performances earlier in a series.
The idea: early-series offensive slumps tend to linger, and the betting market can overestimate a scoring rebound.
Walker Buehler takes the mound for Boston, looking to build on a steady return to form. He’ll face Colton Gordon, a rookie left-hander making his first career start against the Red Sox.
While Romy Gonzalez has mashed lefties this season (1.029 OPS, 5 HRs), Boston’s offense as a whole has struggled to back him up consistently.
With both teams trending under and the system highlighting this as a prime spot for continued offensive stagnation, we’re backing Under 9.5 runs in Game 2.
Pick: Under 9.5 (-120)
