The Houston Astros try to run damage control after back-to-back blowups against the Baltimore Orioles in the series finale on Sunday night.
This game could have been a complete flip of the script if Houston had held on. The Orioles would be sending out right-hander Dean Kremer looking to avoid a home series sweep. Instead, the Yordan Alvarez-less Astros will need Yusei Kikuchi to provide stability and even up the series at two games apiece.
Alvarez remains questionable ahead of tonight's primetime bout with a neck injury. But we still have a game and a more importantly, an MLB parlay to concoct! So let's get right into it with my Astros vs. Orioles Sunday Night Baseball parlay picks.
Charlie DiSturco's Astros vs Orioles Sunday Night Baseball Parlay Picks
- Astros First Five Innings +0.5 (-175)
- Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
- Adley Rutschman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Parlay Odds: +750 (bet365)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Astros First Five Innings +0.5 (-175)
Astros vs Orioles | 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN
We start things off with a fade of right-hander Dean Kremer. Despite back-to-back quality starts entering this matchup, Kremer is a negative regression candidate and has plenty of underlying flaws.
For starters, Kremer’s xERA has ballooned to 4.94, his worst since 2021. The biggest reasoning behind that has been a near-2% increase in barrels allowed. He doesn’t have elite swing-and-miss stuff and has seen his command take a turn for the worse (9.9 BB%, up 2.4% from 2023).
Now, he gets a Houston offense that ranks top 10 in wRC+ over the past 30 days. Even with Yordan Alvarez likely absent and the back-to-back implosions from the Astros this series, they are undervalued on the road here.
Yusei Kikuchi is the much better pitcher in this matchup. While he also has a bit of an issue limiting barrels, Kikuchi has flashed elite swing-and-miss stuff and his xERA (4.03) is the lowest since 2020.
Kikuchi has a 27% whiff rate of better on each of his four pitches and has really developed a dominant arsenal. Since coming to the Astros, Kikuchi has also been as reliable as they come — a 2.42 ERA and 31 strikeouts across 22 1/3 innings.
Even with Baltimore in their better split, the starting pitching edge is enough for me to buy the Astros here on the first five innings line. Since there's no moneyline option on bet365, we'll take the extra half-run for parlay-safety purposes.
Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Astros vs Orioles | 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN
Jeremy Pena is starting to heat up at the plate, rising the xwOBA leaderboard over the past few weeks. The power has started to come too for the shortstop, as he’s hitting .320 with five home runs and a 50% extra-base hit rate over the last 15 days.
While Pena is better against left-handed pitching, he is Houston’s No. 1 ranked hitter over the last 14 days against right-handed pitching (159 wRC+), just barely beating out Yainer Diaz.
Given the high barrel rate that Kremer allows, Pena could be in for a home run in this third-straight game. He has a hit in 10 of his last 12 games and 2+ bases in eight of those contests (75%).
I like backing the red-hot Pena at the plate in a plus-matchup. He should be hitting right in the middle of the Astros lineup and could even be live for an RBI if Yordan Alvarez is inactive for the third-straight game.
Adley Rutschman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Astros vs Orioles | 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN
We need to juice the parlay up a bit, so let’s pinch our noses and take Adley Rutschman total bases here. I totally get the concern about Rutschman, who has hit just .244 over the last month with six total extra base hits.
But the silver-lining in this matchup is that a lefty is on the mound — and the Astros bullpen has been anything but reliable this series. Rutschman has largely become a non-factor against right-handed pitching this season (.225 average, .663 OPS). But then look at him vs. a southpaw, and you see an All-Star caliber player (.349 average, .948 OPS).
Rutschman has faced Kikuchi 23 times in his career and sticking to the trend of his success vs. left-handed pitching, is hitting .391 with three home runs and a 1.308 OPS.
Kikuchi has battled hard-hit and barrel issues all season long, which plays well for a hitter like Rutschman. Despite Rutschman’s lack of offensive success, I do think this is a great buy-low spot on him to juice our parlay close to 8/1.
