It's Thursday, and even though we only have 10 games on the schedule, you know I've got some bangers.
Read on for my Home Run Picks Today for Thursday, April 16.
Home Run Picks Today
In the table below, you'll find each of our MLB staff's top player prop picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 12:40 PM | |
| 1:10 PM | |
| 1:40 PM | |
| 2:10 PM | |
| 3:05 PM | |
| 8:10 PM | |
| 8:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Editor's Note: A home run parlay is not the author's formal recommendation. These home run picks have value as straight bets.
Giants vs. Reds HR Pick
Willy Adames
Home Run
Willy Adames is a great home run hitter and would probably be closing in on 35-40 HRs most years if he played in a better ballpark.
Today, he gets one of the best ballparks in the league for power today.
Reds SP Chase Burns is a tough overall matchup, but he grades out as an average matchup for righty power.
I have the true odds on Adames around +400 today, making this a great EV bet.
Pick: Willy Adames Home Run (+490)
Royals vs. Tigers Player Prop
Vinnie Pasquantino
Home Run
Vinnie Pasquantino has been terrible to start the season, but he almost got one last night, and the power is absolutely there.
Tigers SP Keider Montero has been absolutely crushed by lefty power in his career, allowing a massive 1.71 HR/9.
I have the true odds here around +550.
Pick: Vinnie Pasquantino Home Run (+720)
Blue Jays vs. Brewers Prop Pick
Gary Sanchez
Home Run
Gary Sanchez has been great to start the season, with five homers in 11 games and has one of the highest barrel rates in the league thus far.
The matchup vs. Blue Jays SP Patrick Corbin is a great one as he's been a gas can for righty power for years.
I have the true odds on Sanchez under +400, making this a great pick.
Pick: Gary Sanchez Home Run (+410)
Rays vs. White Sox Home Run Pick
Munetaka Murakami
Home Run
Munetaka Murakami continues to play well above expectations and has been absolutely hammering the ball.
This matchup vs. Rays starter Steven Matz is lefty/lefty, but Matz is a splits-neutral pitcher who grades out as an above-average matchup for lefty power.
The weather should be good over in Chicago, with wind blowing out at 10 mph and temperatures around 70 degrees.
I have the true odds here around +350.
Pick: Munetaka Murakami Home Run (+413))
Rangers vs. Athletics MLB Player Prop
Shea Langeliers
Home Run
Jack Leiter is a decent young pitcher, but he is a big fly-ball pitcher. The Rangers starter has allowed only average HRs to righties in his short career, but he has allowed above-average fly balls and good hard contact.
This ballpark is one of the best home run parks in the league, and Shea Langeliers has been incredible this season. He is near the league lead in homers and is one of the best HR hitters in the league.
I have the true odds here around +325, making this a great bet.
Pick: Shea Langeliers Home Run (+390)
Rockies vs. Astros Best HR Bet
Yordan Alvarez
Home Run
Yordan Alvarez gets a righty opener in the Rockies' Chase Dollander, who has been an absolute gas can for lefty power in his career.
Dollander has allowed a massive 2.05 HR/9 in his career to lefties.
Yordan has been one of the best hitters in the league this season, and I have the true odds around +350 today, making this an excellent pick.
Pick: Yordan Alvarez Home Run (+320)
Mariners vs. Padres HR Pick Tonight
Julio Rodriguez
Home Run
J-Rod has been off to a rough start this season, but the power is absolutely there, and this is a great spot.
Padres SP Walker Buehler has been one of the best home run matchups in the league for righties over the past 2 seasons (allowing right around a 2.00 HR/9).
I have the true odds here around +450.
Pick: Julio Rodriguez Home Run (+540)
