Guardians vs. Yankees Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+138 | 7 -118 / -104 | +1.5 -156 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-164 | 7 -118 / -104 | -1.5 +130 |
Aaron Judge's injury has spiraled an already injury-riddled Yankees team into disarray. They have lost four straight, scoring just six runs in that span. Last night, Domingo German was pulled after 8 1/3 before the bullpen blew the lead in a 3-2 loss.
The Bronx Bombers look to right the ship behind ace Gerrit Cole on Tuesday night as he draws rookie Tanner Bibee, fresh off his MLB debut. The 24-year-old threw 5 2/3 of one-run ball against Colorado while the veteran Cole is 5-0 with a 1.11 ERA across six starts. New York has not lost a game when Cole takes the mound.
Here's how to bet this battle between American League foes that are both off to sluggish starts in 2023.
Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians' pitching staff has been riddled with injuries and Bibee was given his chance to fill in last week against Colorado, dominating in front of the Cleveland faithful. He has been nothing but spectacular since being drafted by the Guardians in 2021, sporting a sub-2 ERA in 16 starts between Double- and Triple-A.
THE BAT, Zips and Steamer all project the right-hander to sport a low 4 ERA. In his 5 2/3 debut, Bibee struck out eight batters. He did give up a 35.7% line-drive rate. He mostly stuck to two pitches — slider and fastball — with his most effective being the former. His changeup was the most successful putaway pitch (40%) despite him only throwing it eight times.
It's hard to project how Bibee will hold up as the season progresses. He did face a weak Rockies lineup, but the Yankees' offense has been lost without Judge manning the middle. Cleveland's bullpen has graded around average (4.43 xFIP) to begin the season but are top 10 in LOB%.
Emmanuel Clase is his dominant self — 10 saves, 1.76 ERA — and both Trevor Stephan (1.46) and Eli Morgan (0.00) have bolstered a dominant backend. If Cleveland can get six strong from its starters, it's rare to see a lead blown from this group.
While they're not dealing with injuries on the offensive front, the Guardians have struggled mightily. They're 27th in wRC+ and 28th in both wOBA and ISO. They remains a hard team to strikeout, but are hitting just .229 with majority soft contact.
Josh Bell was brought over in the offseason but is hitting just .202 with three home runs. Amed Rosario and Josh Naylor have also struggled, with sub-.340 slugging%.
All in all, this offense is 26th in runs per game (3.83) and has struggled behind an injury-riddled rotation. They are just 14-15 in a weak American League Central.
New York Yankees
Cole has been the steady hand amid a tumultuous season for the Yankees. New York has won each start made by the right-hander including a compete game shutout of the Twins a few weeks back.
He did make a start against the Guardians in early April, throwing seven innings of two-run ball. He only struck out three but the Yankees cruised to an 11-2 win. Cole has been among the most dominant pitchers in baseball and has a sub-.200 batting average against each time through the order (.192, .140 and .188, respectively).
From an advanced metrics perspective, his 1.11 ERA is unsustainable, which shouldn't be a shcoker. His FIP is a run higher at 2.11 and his xERA and xFIP sit up at 2.78 and 3.48, respectively. He has nearly halved his barrel rate from a season ago and his xSLG sits in the low .300s, which is a career best and mirrors his 2019 season where he finished second behind then-Astros teammate Justin Verlander for the Cy Young.
Cole remains in search of his first-ever Cy Young and this season could be the time. His fastball has been dominant — .192 xBA — and his slider, curveball and changeup have rarely been touched. Despite some indications of negative regression, Cole remains one of the top pitchers in baseball and has the ability to shut down the opposition night in and night out.
The real issue has been with the Yankees offense. For the season, they are down at 23rd in wRC+ and 26th in wOBA. Over the last seven days, they are dead last in both categories.
Judge was recently placed on the injured list with a hip injury, joining fellow slugger Giancarlo Stanton on the sidelines. The one good news is that Harrison Bader was activated this morning and should take over starting duties in center field.
The Yankees need all the help they can get; Anthony Rizzo has been slumping after a hot start and remains the team's batting average leader (.274). DJ LeMahieu has struggled, too. But it's evident just how much this lineup lacks production, especially near the bottom of the order.
Relief-wise, the Yankees remain 11th in xFIP, but it feels much worse than that. Clay Holmes was unable to keep a 2-0 lead intact in the ninth on Monday and aside from Michael King and Ron Marinaccio, no Yankee reliever has looked anywhere near their last year's self. Even Wandy Peralta has struggled at times (2.53 ERA and 7 BBs in 10 2/3 innings).
Both Holmes (10 pitches) and Peralta (19 pitches) came in relief for German on Monday but could be made available if needed tonight.
Guardians vs. Yankees Betting Pick
I have been riding Cole's hot hand all season long and think today presents as another great opportunity. Rather than a side, I'm looking at the under 7 in this matchup.
Cole already faced the Guardians once this season — 7 IP, 2R — and I expect a similar performance out of the right-hander. He has been as consistent as it gets and the Yankees will need their ace to pitch deep into tonight's game with some bullpen uncertainty and struggles. The Guardians' offense has been of no threat this season and I don't expect that to change anytime soon.
The same could be said for the Yankees without Judge. They are in complete disarray and have been arguably the worst offense over the last week. In general, they have been nothing to gawk at. Now losing their star and main reason for any offensive success, they should struggle against Bibee, who looked quite impressive in his debut.
His slider has been excellent and with his changeup being extremely effective — both near-40% whiff rates — Bibee should mitigate damage before the daunted Cleveland backend takes over.
Pick: Under 7 |
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