Guardians vs Orioles Prediction | Odds & Moneyline Pick
| Cleveland Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-105 | 8 +100o / -120u | +1.5 -205 |
| Baltimore Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-115 | 8 +100o / -120u | -1.5 +170 |
Every year, the Cleveland Guardians seem to fly under the radar despite always having a solid team. This season is no different as they enter Monday on a five-game winning streak and possession of the best record in the American League, yet nobody is talking about them.
The Baltimore Orioles are one of those teams getting more hype, despite sitting a game and a half back of the Guardians after getting swept by the Houston Astros.
Guardians vs Orioles odds for Monday have the Orioles as -115 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8 (+100o / -120u). Read along for my Guardians vs Orioles moneyline prediction for Monday, June 24.
Cleveland Guardians
The best way I can describe Tanner Bibee is, “he’s fine.” Bibee is a good, not great starting pitcher who should give you a chance to win more often than not. Bibee is 5-2 with a 3.65 ERA.
His 3.55 xERA puts him in the 65th percentile of all pitchers and he carries a .300 xwOBA. He is in the 50th percentile of barrel rate allowed. The one thing he does very well is generate swing-and-misses.
Bibee has a 10.95 K/9 rate and sits in the top 10% of pitchers in strikeout rate. He throws his fastball nearly 45% of the time, and it has been terrible. He is allowing a .331 average and .425 wOBA off his fastball, but his secondary pitches have all been terrific.
Cleveland’s offense is red-hot right now. On the season as a whole they have been strong, ranking ninth in wRC+ but over the last month they are fifth in the league in a 123 wRC+.
Outfielder Steven Kwan has quietly been one of the best hitters in all of baseball this year. He is hitting .390 with a 1.023 OPS and Aaron Judge is the only player in the league with a higher wRC+ than Kwan.
Baltimore Orioles
24-year-old Cade Povich will make his fourth career start after making his MLB debut on June 6. He is Baltimore’s No. 9 ranked prospect, and No. 2 ranked pitching prospect. Season-ending injuries to John Means and Kyle Bradish earned Povich the call-up and has a 3.94 ERA through three outings.
Povich really struggled in his debut, allowing six runs to the Blue Jays. He has really settled in since that start though, allowing just one run across his next two starts against the Braves and the Yankees.
Command has been an issue early on for the lefty, who has issued nine walks in 16 innings. His strikeout upside also has not translated yet. Povich posted an 11.91 K/9 rate in Triple-A this season but so far has just a 5.06 K/9 rate in the big leagues.
This young Orioles lineup has been one of the league’s best all year. The O’s rank third in wOBA and wRC+ and lead the league in runs scored and home runs. They hit for both average and power and are led by MVP candidate Gunnar Henderson.
Guardians vs. Orioles
Betting Pick & Prediction
As good as the Guardians have been over the last month, Baltimore has been better. Cleveland is fifth in the league with a 121 wRC+ over the last month, but the Orioles lead the league with a 136 wRC+ over that stretch.
Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez, and Josh Naylor are having great seasons but the lineup drops off a cliff after that. The Orioles mash throughout their entire lineup. Seven of Baltimore’s starters have a wRC+ of at least 110 and five of them are over 120.
Bibee is a fine pitcher, but he is nothing more than a middle-of-the-rotation type of guy. His 3.55 xERA is more than respectable, but Povich has more upside. One of the Orioles top pitching prospects, Povich has already shown that his curveball is nasty and he has a strong pitch mix.
At ever level of the minor leagues, Povich posted a K/9 rate over 10.00. His K/9 rate was 11.91 through 11 starts in Triple-A this season but sits at just 5.06 through three big league starts. Every projection system has him with a number closer to 9.00.
We saw him flash that a little against the Braves when he struck out six batters, and I expect to see that more consistently. Even without the punchouts, he has allowed just one run and six hits in his last two starts.
If Povich can just continue to improve his command, he is more talented than Bibee and has a much deeper lineup behind him, hopefully giving him run support.
Cleveland has one of the best bullpens in the league, but Tim Herrin, Sam Hentges, Cade Smith, and closer Emmanuel Clase all pitched yesterday and are likely unavailable, shifting the later innings advantage.
Pick: Orioles ML (-118) | Bet to (-120)
