Logically, the Braves vs. Dodgers series finale would have been handed Sunday Night Baseball’s time slot. But, this is baseball we’re talking about here. Why would they give the fans an opportunity to watch the two powerhouses of the National League square off?!
So here we are, with Sunday Night Baseball out in Philadelphia where the red-hot Phillies look to continue their dominance against the San Francisco Giants.
Taijuan Walker is battling for a spot in what has become a six-man rotation while San Francisco turns to ace Logan Webb hoping to salvage what has been a disastrous road trip so far (1-4). The Giants are slight favorites (-115).
I’m here to give a three-leg same-game parlay for Sunday Night Baseball. My logic here is simple: I want a high-odds parlay that pairs data-driven analysis with an enjoyable sweat to finish off the week.
Feel free to tone back the props as you see fit — less strikeouts, a hit vs. total bases, etc. — but each pick comes with my reasoning behind the prop. As always, remember to gamble responsibly. This is a long shot for a reason.
So let’s get it started. Read below for my Giants vs Phillies same game parlay (+850) for Sunday Night Baseball.
Giants vs Phillies Same Game Parlay (+850)
- Logan Webb Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+112)
- LaMonte Wade Jr. To Score a Run (-105)
- Matt Chapman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Logan Webb Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+112)
Why not start with a prop that has yet to hit through Logan Webb’s seven starts this season?!
On a real note, I actually think this is a strong buy-low spot on Webb. He has finished with five strikeouts on three separate occasions and draws a Phillies lineup sans-Trea Turner. The weather conditions favor a lower-scoring bout and Webb has consistently been able to pitch deep into ball games this season.
Plus, there are a lot of strikeout-prone bats in this Philly lineup. Brandon Marsh and Kyle Schwarber both strikeout over a third of the time, while Nick Castellanos ranks in the bottom 4% of all hitters in chase rate.
Tack on Turner’s absence — Edmundo Sosa is the likely replacement — and that’s another bat with a 7% higher strikeout rate in the lineup.
Of all qualified pitchers, Webb ranks 11th in Stuff+ (114) and Pitching+ (106) this season. I expect positive regression to come for Webb who is generating nearly 5% less swings compared to the last three years.
Starting Sunday night off strong, with a plus money prop! If you want to be safer, take the over 4.5 as the opening leg of the parlay.
LaMonte Wade Jr. To Score a Run (-105)
The Giants offense has been a corpse the last couple of weeks — they have not scored more than three runs in each of the last nine — but there is a player who has been able to consistently find his way on base thanks to an elite eye at the plate.
That’s right, it’s Late Night LaMonte!
Wade consistently hits near the top of the lineup and ranks in the 100th percentile of all hitters in walk rate (19.1%). Through the first month of the season, he’s boasted a career-best .286 xBA and 42.6 hard-hit rate. While the power hasn’t fully come, he does not chase out of the zone and truly is an on-base machine.
Against a pitcher like Taijuan Walker, this is a great spot to buy on the Giants being able to plate a few runs. In his season debut against the Padres last week, Walker was tattooed for six runs — two home runs — over 6.1 innings. He allowed five barrels in that span and a .372 xBA.
Now I don’t expect every start to be this bad, but Walker projects to be a below-average arm in the bigs. All major projections have the right-hander in the high 4s when it comes to ERA, along with a low strikeout rate and home-run issues.
Behind Wade sit Jorge Soler, Michael Conforto and Matt Chapman in the lineup. Each of those three possess extra-base power and could change the game with a single swing of the bat.
Pair Wade’s ability to get on base with Walker’s alarming issues, and I am looking to back this Giants offense in some sort of fashion tonight. It’s also consistent with our same-game parlay being concocted — we are Giants centric!
Given that, I am betting on Wade to score a run.
Matt Chapman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)
This is where you can pick your poison. I’m rolling with Matt Chapman total bases, but I wouldn’t blame you if you went with Soler or Conforto, either.
It’s been an interesting season for Chapman, who I believe is due for some positive regression when it comes to hit power. He hasn’t had an extra-base hit in each of his last 10 — he did have a hit in eight of those games — yet ranks in the 91st percentile in average exit velocity.
While his numbers have dropped slightly across the board, he remains well above-average when it comes to hard-hit rate (47.4%), barrel rate (9.5%) and has actually reached his highest xBA (.248) since 2019.
Am I overreacted to Walker’s one bad start? Maybe. But even last year, he struggled to rack up strikeouts, relied on pitching to contact and allowed the second-highest hard-hit rate of his career.
Chapman is the most consistent Giants hitter in the middle of the order and given both his dip in strikeout rate this season and team-high hard-hit rate, I am siding with the third baseman to do some damage against Walker.
Again, take your pick. Any of the trio I mentioned will get you close to that 10-1 SGP price. Best of luck and as always, remember to gamble responsibly. These are long shots for a reason.
