The Giants and Nationals brought fireworks to the nation's capital on Wednesday, blasting off for 16 combined runs in a Washington win.
It was a parade for over bettors, whether it was the total or hitter props. Five players hit homers, and 10 of the 18 batters secured 2+ total bases. It was an offensive bonanza.
The oddsmakers don't seem to think the offensive surge will carry over into Wednesday, as the game total sits at 7.5 runs. Either way, let's get a same-game parlay rolling for Giants vs. Nationals.
Let's break down the best combination of bets in my Giants vs Nationals parlay.
Sean Paul's Giants vs Nationals Parlay Odds & Picks
- Giants ML (-154)
- Michael Conforto Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)
- Blake Snell Over 8.5 Strikeouts (+126)
Parlay Odds: +465 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
My SGP Pick #1: Giants ML -155
I'm looking at fading Nationals pitcher Jake Irvin against the Giants' surging lineup on Wednesday.
Irvin has enjoyed a strong season, posting a career-best 3.56 ERA with a 3.88 FIP to match. However, his last seven starts have been a bit turbulent, owning a 4.50 ERA in 42 innings, notably higher than his season-long ERA.
The biggest obstacle for Irvin of late has been the long ball — he's given up eight homers during that time frame and surrendered multiple homers in three of his seven starts.
Since July 30, the Giants have five hitters with a wRC+ above 150: Matt Chapman (208), Michael Conforto (206), LaMonte Wade Jr. (162), Tyler Fitzgerald (186 wRC+), whose sudden emergence has seen the power-hitting infielder hit three homers in the past week, and fellow rookie Jerar Encarnacion (158 wRC+).
If the Giants' lineup is performing like this, Irvin will find it tough to hold them down. Irvin's rotation mate, MacKenzie Gore got a glimpse of San Francisco's dangerous lineup last night, allowing four runs in the first inning before the Giants blew the lead and ended up losing, 11-5.
The Giants will hand the ball to highly-paid lefty Blake Snell, who turned in two of the best starts you'll ever see back-to-back.
Two starts ago, Snell punched out 15 hitters in seven innings and then followed that up with a no-hitter that featured 11 strikeouts against the Reds.
After signing late in the offseason and getting hurt, Snell didn't find his footing until recently. With Snell back in Cy Young form, along with a potent lineup and a strong relief corps, it's a favorable matchup for San Francisco.
My SGP Pick #2: Michael Conforto
Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Dare I say Conforto is back? Maybe.
The Giants' decision to keep the left-handed outfielder at the deadline allowed him to hone in on his craft and help lead the Giants to a chase for the final NL Wild Card spot.
Conforto has gone 8-for-21 (.381) in his last seven games with an OPS over 1.200. He's scalding line drives left and right, and he even committed some lefty-on-lefty crime with a first-inning homer against Gore yesterday.
The 31-year-old outfielder ranks favorably in hard-hit metrics, ranking in the 77th percentile in hard-hit percentage, 72nd in barrel percentage and 70th in expected slugging. Conforto is the perfect type of hitter to take advantage of Irvin's recent home run woes.
It's been a strange year for Conforto for a few reasons.
It didn't feel like the Giants were committed to him since they wanted to shed payroll, and either he or Jorge Soler seemed destined to get traded. Ultimately, it ended up being Soler.
The stranger part of Conforto's season is his random reverse splits. He has always hit right-handers better until now. Conforto owns a 97 wRC+ versus right-handers and a blistering 154 wRC+ against southpaws.
It's not even a small sample, but Conforto's lengthy track record of dominating right-handers, like Irvin, gives me hope for a strong day from him.
My SGP Pick #3: Blake Snell
Over 8+ Strikeouts (+126)
Second-half Snell is becoming a real thing.
When Snell got hot last year as a member of the Padres, his strikeout overs felt like an automatic bet each start. We got some decent prices on Snell props early after starting the year slow and then getting hurt before rounding into form.
The southpaw has punched out at least eight batters in three of his past four outings, and the Nationals don't hit lefties — at all. They own a wRC+ of 86 to rank 26th in MLB, but they strike out just 20% of the time.
However, Washington's offense is more strikeout-prone now than it was a few weeks back.
Rookie James Wood provides more swing-and-miss, punching out 24% of the time against lefties. Plus, Lane Thomas is now playing for the Guardians, and he provided the best bat-to-ball skills in the Nationals' lineup.
Another plus — it's a day game after a night game, which typically means the backup catcher draws the start. In this case, Riley Adams likely fills in for Keibert Ruiz, and it's a major plus for Snell's strikeout prop. Adams has gone down on strikes in 28% of at-bats against lefties, while Ruiz punches out only 7% of the time.
Snell should have his way with Adams and the trio of lefties — Wood, CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr. — en route to another 8+ strikeout performance.
