Giants vs. Dodgers Odds, Pick
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+164 | 8 -105o/ -115u | +1.5 -130 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-198 | 8 -105o/ -115u | -1.5 +110 |
Former Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray is active for the first time since early 2023 and will pitch on Thursday in his debut for the San Francisco Giants. The veteran southpaw will be a needed boost to the Giants' starting rotation.
Ray has always been a reliable option in the rotation, and since the Los Angeles Dodgers have slumped against lefties lately, this could end up being a favorable matchup for him in his return.
Tyler Glasnow, who is also returning from injury, will be on the bump for the Dodgers. Glasnow has been great, but somehow, his peripheral metrics indicate that he is underachieving. The Giants are relatively weak toward the bottom of their order, so Glasnow may have a favorable matchup, too.
Find my Giants vs. Dodgers prediction and MLB betting preview below.
San Francisco Giants
Ray has not pitched in over a year, but he did pitch into the sixth inning in his latest rehab assignment. This should, at least, show that he might be able to make it through five innings.
In his last full season (2022 with the Mariners), Ray held a sub-4.00 ERA and xERA, which is definitely top-of-the-rotation performance. In '22, Ray relied heavily on keeping the ball on the ground. Even though he has a tendency to yield hard contact, he can thrive as long as the ball is not in the air.
At the plate, the Giants have not necessarily crushed righties lately. They have a 99 wRC+, 8% Walk Rate and 23.6% Strikeout Rate against right-handers in the last month, which is about average. In addition, they only have four bats above a .320 xwOBA with those same parameters in place.
However, the Giants have been excellent in relief, especially Camilo Doval. The Giants own a 3.74 xFIP out of the bullpen in the last month with a 23.1% Strikeout Rate and 8.4% Walk Rate. They have five arms below a 4.00 xFIP, so they have the artillery to throw if Ray needs to exit earlier than anticipated.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Glasnow has been excellent with a 3.47 ERA, but his xERA is 2.49, so he could have a great second half. He does give up some hard contact, but he keeps the ball on the ground. He also has a well above average Walk Rate and a 33.6% Strikeout Rate. He has not had the best results in his last couple of outings, but he should improve upon those here and going forward.
The Dodgers have hit righties much better than lefties, so if Ray can look like he has before his injury, Los Angeles could have some trouble. The Dodgers have an 89 wRC+, 10.5% Walk Rate and 19.5% Strikeout Rate against lefties in the last month.
Yes, the Walk and Strikeout Rates are encouraging, but they only have three bats with over 10 plate appearances above a .320. Yes, they have three above .380, but if Ray can keep the ball on the ground through the top of the Dodgers’ order, he should be fine.
The Dodgers bullpen has some question marks, but Glasnow can pitch deep into games, and he should do so here. The Dodgers have a 4.46 xFIP in relief in the last month, so they could use an arm or two at the deadline. They do have three pitchers under the 4.00 xFIP mark, so they should fare well when Glasnow needs to exit.
Giants vs. Dodgers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Dodger Stadium has not been a kind hitter's park recently as it ranks 19th in Park Factor over the last three seasons.
Glasnow has shown he can get hitters out with ease, and if Ray can induce grounders against the Dodgers, who have struggled against lefties, this game should go under the total.
