One of the most popular promotions in the sports betting community is back again this week for the July 4 holiday: FanDuel Dinger Tuesday.
The promotion allows each user to bet $25 on one player in every MLB game played that day to hit a home run. Regardless of whether the player you bet on homers, you receive $5 in free bets back for each home run hit in the game, with a max return of $25 for the game.
Some users have been limited by FanDuel this season and are only allowed to receive a maximum $50 back in free bets – essentially 10 free homers back for the day in free bets. Last season, there were no limits on the promotion for any players.
Given the average number of home runs in an MLB game in 2022 was 2.14, you will receive an average of $10.07 in free bets back for each $25 home run bet you make, without accounting for the loss in expected value on the vig of the home run yes prop.
If you’re not limited at all, you should play as many games as you’re comfortable with because the promo is +EV for most of the board.
If you are limited to the max return of $50, an average of five games will return your $50 maximum free bets.
Here are my five favorite FanDuel Dinger Tuesday picks for this week.
Ready to place your bets? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook now to check out all of the Dinger Tuesday wagers, as well as bets across the entire world of sports!
Pick: Spencer Steer +420
We’ll start with the first game of the day and the highest total on the board. Kicking off Independence Day in our Nation’s Capital, the Reds and Nationals opened with a total of 10.5, so the fireworks are expected early.
Since the start of the 2021 season, only one pitcher has allowed more home runs than Patrick Corbin. He has surrendered 79 home runs in his last 79 starts. This season, he has amassed a 6.21 xERA and ranks in the bottom 10% of the league in average exit velocity.
Spencer Steer leads the Reds with 14 home runs, with half of them coming against left-handed pitchers. Steer has been red hot recently, hitting four home runs in the last two weeks with a 1.058 OPS. Cincinnati has hit the second-most home runs of any team over the last two weeks and have a great matchup against Corbin. Back Steer to take one out on Tuesday.
Pick: Anthony Santander +350
Clarke Schmidt is a young pitcher with a lot of promise but home runs have been an issue for him early. Schmidt has surrendered 11 home runs in 17 starts this season and has allowed a ton of hard contact. He ranks in the bottom 12% of the league in average exit velocity. His sinker and cutter combo has not worked for him thus far,
The young Orioles offense has been led by the breakout season of Anthony Santander and his 14 home runs. Eleven of those have come against right-handed pitchers and four of them in the last two weeks. Santander has displayed an ability to hit the ball to all parts of the park. He has already proven he sees the ball well against Schmidt, starting 4-for-7 against him in his career. Back Tony Banks to cash in for us here.
Ready to place your bets? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook now to check out all of the Dinger Tuesday wagers, as well as bets across the entire world of sports!
Pick: Jose Abreu +500
After a terrible start to the season, Jose Abreu is finally turning things around in Houston. He has smacked three home runs in the last 11 games and has a 54% hard-hit rate since the start of June. He has seven home runs on the season but nine xHR.
Kyle Freeland serves up home runs at an alarming rate, with the 10th-highest HR/9 rate in the league. He has allowed 15 home runs this year, and that is not just the cost of playing at Coors Field. Freeland has allowed more home runs on the road this season.
Houston’s offense got off to a slow start but ranks second in wRC+, third in slugging and fifth in barrel rate over the last two weeks. Even without Yordan Alvarez, this lineup has plenty of guys with pop. Abreu has a good price at +500, and is still getting priced for his season as a whole and not how he has looked in the last few weeks.
Pick: Eloy Jimenez +390
Chris Bassitt and Lucas Giolito each rank in the bottom 15 of the league in HR/9 this season. They have both allowed 16 home runs in 17 starts and give up a high barrel rate. Bassitt fails to miss bats and teams are crushing his cutter.
Eloy Jimenez is mashing the ball to a .440 average and 1.241 OPS in the last week. He’s fourth on the White Sox with 11 home runs but leads the team in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. He ranks 12th in the entire league in hard-hit rate.
Bassitt throws mostly a sinker and Jimenez has a .408 wOBA with a 52.8% hard-hit rate against sinkers this year. Both of these lineups have plenty of power and Jimenez has a great matchup against Bassitt.
Pick: Mookie Betts +390
The Dodgers have hit the second-most home runs in the league this season and their games are always a wise target for Dinger Tuesday picks. The trick for them is picking the right player in the lineup and I’m going with Mookie Betts.
Besides leading Los Angeles with 22 home runs — fifth most in the league — Betts is hitting .529 with three home runs and a 1.996 OPS over the last week. He is red-hot at the plate and the young Luis Ortiz has already allowed eight home runs in just nine starts this year. Betts is elite at putting the ball in play and sits in the top 10% of the league in average exit velocity.
Pittsburgh isn’t the most high-profile offense, but has enough pieces to do their part and the offense has really gotten going over the last week. A total of 9.5 should see plenty of runs, and good hitting conditions in Pittsburgh should lead to a few home runs.
Other Guys I like: Jorge Soler +370, Francisco Lindor +470, Willy Adames +390, Michael Harris II +630
