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Fanatics Long Ball Jackpot: Minion’s Home Run Picks for Dodgers vs Rockies, Angels vs Padres

Fanatics Long Ball Jackpot: Minion’s Home Run Picks for Dodgers vs Rockies, Angels vs Padres article feature image
4 min read
Credit:

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images. Pictured: Teoscar Hernandez

You have to check out Fanatics Sportsbook's newest big-money contest, the MLB Long Ball Jackpot.

It’s already paid out some big winners… Maybe you’ll be next?!?!

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Fanatics Long Ball Jackpot: An Introduction

Here's how it works:

  • Opt in and bet a minimum of $5 on a player to hit a home run. You can only select one player.
  • If your player hits the longest home run on the MLB slate, you split $50,000 in FanCash with everyone else who bet that player.
  • But because the longest home run on a given day is pretty random and about 270 players are eligible on a 15-game slate, there have been some huge winners already.
  • Home run distance is measured via MLB's StatCast, which captures "the flight of the path based on radar as far as the radar will allow us to track it" and "if the radar loses it, we project beyond it based on the physics." So, it's not a perfect measurement.

While Fanatics is the first sportsbook to run a competition based on the length of home runs in baseball, several other sportsbooks offer similar contests.

For example, DraftKings runs the NBA King of the Court contest, in which the player who bets the highest PRA total on the slate wins. Of course, this more often than not results in minuscule payouts, given how top-heavy the league is.

On the contrary, the Long Ball Jackpot offers much greater randomness, resulting in much higher payouts.

As such, the contest is far more strategic.

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Long Ball Game Theory

On the surface, you’d think you want to target players who hit a ton of homers.

But the game theory in this contest runs deeper, with more statistical variables to consider.

For starters, average home run distance and launch angle are of vital importance for picking Long Ball Jackpot winners. Any search for this contest should start by identifying a group of players who thrive in these categories.

Additionally, you have to take the weather, specifically wind speed, into account. Heavy winds can drastically impact the distance of any home run. At the same time, take into account the ballpark, as some are far easier than others to hit longer homers.

Finally, taking a contrarian stance in this contest is the best route. There’s little correlation between how elite a hitter is and how long he can crush a home run on any given day.

To maximize potential profit, you must get creative with your selections so your winnings are not split among a large group.

A Statistical Deep Dive into Fanatics Sportsbook's $50K Long Ball Jackpot Image

MLB Home Run Picks for Friday, April 17

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Teoscar Hernandez

@ Rockies, 8:40 PM ET

For my first selection in Friday’s Longball Jackpot competition, I will be taking a shot on Dodgers outfielder Teoscar Hernandez to hit the longest home run of the day.

First and foremost, when making your selections, take into consideration whether the Colorado Rockies are playing at home at Coors Field, rather than on the road.

In comparing the susceptibility to long homers amongst all the ballparks in baseball, Coors Field produces the longest homers by a sizable margin.

This can be attributed to Colorado’s extremely high altitude, where lower air density allows baseballs to travel 5-10% farther under ideal conditions. The thin air creates less wind resistance, enabling well-hit balls to travel much further.

After a slow start to the season, Teoscar is heating up behind the plate, blasting three “no-doubters” over the last week. The Dodgers’ 33-year-old has blasted at least 25 homers in five consecutive seasons, also hitting upwards of 21 in seven of the past eight years.

Pick: Teoscar Hernandez Home Run (+500, Fanatics)

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Zach Neto

vs. Padres, 9:38PM ET

For my second pick in Fanatics’ Longball Jackpot competition, I will be taking more of a contrarian approach in targeting Angels’ shortstop Zach Neto as they host the Padres on Friday night.

While cashing my Teoscar pick would likely result in far less of a bonus payout given his likelihood of popularity, I expect Neto to have far more of a high-reward upside if he does smash the longest homer on Friday’s slate.

After a very up-and-down MLB debut in 2023, Neto caught fire in each of his last two seasons, blasting 23 and then 26 homers, respectively. In 2026, the fourth-year Angel is off to a hot start as well, having already hit five home runs thus far.

Given the young infielder's ability to turn on or drive fastballs, his body mechanics result in heavy momentum when he makes great contact with the baseball.

Earlier this season, Neto launched a 443-foot moonshot off a four-seamer high in the zone, ranking ninth this season in home run distance.

The Angels’ young star has quickly established himself as one of the best offensive shortstops in the game, and he is given the perfect matchup on Friday to blast a deep one.

Pick: Zach Neto Home Run (+410, Fanatics)

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About the Author

Ryan graduated from Providence College in 2016 with Bachelor Degrees in Business Economics & Mathematics. It was at Providence where Ryan really first found his passion for sports betting. For a lifelong sports fan with a knack for statistical analysis, he was instantly drawn to the fundamentals of the industry, specifically how sports betting markets functioned and fluctuated. In what primarily started as a recreational hobby, Ryan began studying the ins-and-outs of sports betting markets on a daily basis. He took to Twitter (now X), where he amassed a following for writing a sports betting blog that provided statistical analysis behind his wagers. In spite of seeking employment opportunities elsewhere post graduation, Ryan continued to follow his passion for the statistical analysis of sports betting wagers, eventually deciding to pursue a career in the sports betting industry.

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