The Dodgers and Pirates meet for Game 2 of their series in Pittsburgh on Wednesday evening with a taste of the old and the new in the pitching matchup.
Paul Skenes takes the ball for the Pirates, while James Paxton takes it for Dodgers. These players will be the focus of our Wednesday MLB same-game parlay.
Here's my Dodgers vs Pirates Parlay: Wednesday SGP Picks.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Dodgers vs Pirates Same Game Parlay (Wednesday, June 5)
- Paul Skenes Over 15.5 Outs (-130)
- James Paxton Under 3.5 Ks (-105)
- Pirates F5 ML (-140)
- Parlay Odds: +375 (bet365)
Paul Skenes Over 15.5 Outs (-130)
It's Skenes Day, so what would this SGP be without adding a Skenes-related prop to sweeten the deal? I'll roll with Skenes over 15.5 outs at -130, meaning he needs to get at least one out in the fifth inning.
Last night, Jared Jones carved through the Dodgers' lineup for six innings, utilizing his triple-digit fastball. I could see Skenes accomplishing the same feat.
Skenes pitched six innings in his last three major league starts against the Cubs, Tigers and Giants. The Pirates let their prized pitcher go deep into games, which should help him get this prop to the finish line.
The key for Skenes getting 16 outs is limiting walks. He'll get a higher pitch count than some other pitchers since he's a strikeout pitcher, but walks can totally derail his outing. Skenes walked two batters in his major league debut, where he threw only 84 pitches in four innings.
Since then, the Pirates have lifted the leash on restrictions from Skenes.
James Paxton Under 3.5 Ks (-105)
One prop I’ve taken this year is James Paxton under his strikeout total, which typically came in around 4.5 before most games. Now, the books are caught up, and Paxton is sitting at 3.5 strikeouts against the Pirates.
I still want the under.
Even last year, Paxton struck out 101 batters in 96 innings, good for 9.47 K/9, but he's struck out just 33 batters in 52 innings with the Dodgers for a 5.47 K/9.
He no longer has a wipeout fastball, so his breaking stuff is much easier to hit when hitters don't have to prepare for 94-98 zone up in the zone.
The 35-year-old Paxton has had fewer than four strikeouts in three of his past five starts, so he's done his part of late.
Pirates F5 ML (-140)
My strategic approach here is to bet on the F5 moneyline compared to the full game. This approach eliminates any potential letdowns from a very overused Pirates bullpen.
While I could see the Pirates holding on for the win in nine innings, I prefer to bet against Paxton and ride Skenes to a winning leg for the SGP.
Not only is Paxton no longer throwing hard or striking batters out, but he's well past his prime. Regression has to happen eventually. Paxton's 3.29 ERA is over two runs better than his 5.37 FIP and 5.40 xFIP.
Paxton could be susceptible to a rough outing even against a pedestrian Pirates offense.
I remain unimpressed by the Pirates offense, which owns a wRC+ of just 88. Only four Pirates players own a wRC+ mark above 100, led by Nick Gonzales at 140 and lefty killer Connor Joe at 128.
Gonzalez, Joe and Bryan Reynolds have to play a pivotal role for the Pirates to win the first five innings bet here.
