Dodgers vs. Pirates Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -126 | 8.5 -114 / -106 | -1.5 +124 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+108 | 8.5 -114 / -106 | +1.5 -162 |
The Los Angeles Dodgers travel to Pittsburgh to take on the surging Pirates in what will be an early-season litmus test for two teams with records that most would've imagined would be swapped entering the season.
The Pirates sit atop the National League Central with a 16-7 record that trails only the Tampa Bay Rays in all of baseball. The Dodgers, on the other hand, sit at 12-11, barely over .500 and not leading their division.
Last season, when the Dodgers were heavily favored each and every game, the Pirates swept a midseason series, each game at more than +200 (in fact, the Dodgers were 1-5 overall against the Pirates last season, not that I weigh those results at all when regarding this season, just a few 'Baseball is Weird' examples).
This season bettors won't be able to get those same odds. Let's see where bettors can get an edge on the books, though.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Despite the slow start in the standings and some fair reason for concern before the season, there are still some positives for the club this season. For one, despite the gap between the actual record of these two teams so far this season, they share a Base Runs record (13-10), meaning that if some of the natural early season noise in terms of luck scoring runners and vice versa was stripped from these two, they'd be dead even.
The Dodgers also possess the second-best wRC+ versus right-handed pitchers this season, with only the Rays and their insane start to the season above them. They will face a right-handed pitcher in Johan Oviedo on Tuesday who has been excellent but is due for some regression. Oviedo has a 2.25 ERA and 2.75 xERA through 24 1/3 innings, and while there's reason to like this young starter for Pittsburgh, his FIP (3.86) and xFIP (3.70) are far closer to where I'd project him going forward.
There are certain pitchers who can maintain a lower ERA than FIP, but one factor that can weigh heavily in this regard is the team defense behind that pitcher, and given that even in this strong start, the Pirates rank fifth-worst in baseball by FanGraphs defense, I expect some decent regression moving forward for Oviedo. I am going to be looking to make a play on the Dodgers' offense in the first five innings in particular, especially since the Pirates bullpen has been elite and had a day off on Monday.
Pittsburgh Pirates
For the Pirates, one of the factors in their 'fast' start has been speed on the basepaths. Their 25 steals coming into Tuesday's game rank second in baseball, and there's a great chance for that number to increase by the end of the day.
Noah Syndergaard is notoriously the worst pitcher in baseball at allowing opposing teams to steal on him, so it's a great coming together of best and worst.
Of course, the books are aware of this, so they have priced the Syndergaard Effect into some of the lines they have released, but there appear to still be a few soft spots.
At the time of this writing, only one sportsbook has lines out for individual player steals, so be sure to shop around, but there's already some appealing numbers out there.
Andrew McCutchen is currently priced at +290, which is right around the correct number. I don't hate making this play, as McCutchen has gotten on base with great regularity against righties this season and hasn't been shy on the basepaths. However, a player I like even more with their current number is Connor Joe. Joe has been getting on base at nearly a 40 percent clip against righties this season, and while he has only one successful steal this season, he has taken off twice and is right in the range of speed to make Syndergaard Day the day for one of his 5-6 steals per season. Bettors can get a Joe steal at +600.
Ji Hwan Bae does not have a stolen base price just yet, but he is their leading base stealer, so keep an eye in the app (@TurveyBets) to see which of the rest of the Pirates lineup I'll be eyeing for steals.
Dodgers vs. Pirates Betting Pick
Two distinct plays and a couple leans here.
I like the Dodgers over 2.5 runs in the first five innings +120 at either DraftKings or PointsBet. This is still an elite Dodgers lineup versus righties, and Oviedo is due for a bit of regression.
I also like Joe to steal a base at +600.
For my two leans, I also like McCutchen to steal a base at +290, and for the full game I lean to the Pirates. This seems counter-intuitive to the Dodgers first five innings over, but I don't like Syndergaard pitching either, and the Pirates' bullpen is outstanding and well-rested.
The best price for the Pirates full game in the market right now is +110, and I don't like it much past that number.
Picks: Dodgers F5 Team Total Over 2.5 | Connor Joe to steal a base
