After a contentious battle for the NL West crown down the stretch of the MLB season, the San Diego Padres will visit the Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday after coming through the wild card round quite impressively against the Atlanta Braves. First pitch for Game 1 is scheduled for 8:38 p.m. ET on FS1.
Dylan Cease will get the ball for the Padres for the first time since September 25, when he struggled in a road start against the Dodgers over the course of five innings of 3-run ball. Opposite of him, will be rookie Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who finished his first big-league season with a 3.38 ERA in four starts after being activated from the injured list at the start of September.
With the promise of some offense here, let's get to my Dodgers vs Padres parlay picks for NLDS Game 1.
Dodgers vs Padres Game 1 Parlay Picks
- Dylan Cease 2+ Walks (-260)
- Shohei Ohtani 2+ Total Bases (+100)
- Jackson Merrill 2+ Total Bases (+110)
Parlay Odds: +420 (DraftKings)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Dylan Cease 2+ Walks (-260)
I'm going to choose to take a risk with the third leg of this parlay, as opposed to taking one here with Dylan Cease. With that said, it doesn't mean I'm any less confident in the Padres' ace failing to find the strike zone in this game.
Cease has walked exactly three batters in each of his two starts against the Dodgers this season, recording three walks in his lone start against L.A. last season for good measure. He owns a 9.9% walk rate against this lineup over the course of their respective careers, and in his lone postseason start he walked three Astros in Game 3 of the ALDS, failing to complete the second inning.
This is a man who's failed to find the strike zone for much of his career, checking in with a cold 8.5% walk rate this season and a 9.9% walk rate since the start of August. With a whopping 13.3% of Dodgers drawing a walk in his two starts against the NL West champs this year, and a team which has historically been the most patient team in the league, walking in over 10% of plate appearances in September, this is as safe of a leg as you can ask for.
Shohei Ohtani 2+ Total Bases (+100)
I'm a bit surprised to see Shohei Ohtani's total bases priced like this, but I suppose Cease's walk rate may have something to do with that.
There's inherent risk here with the ever-patient slugger drawing a walk or two here against Cease to take away chances to rack up total bases, but that's where it should end considering the Padres' bullpen has been third-best at limiting walks over their dominant second half. Cease really shouldn't stand a chance to face Ohtani three times, so I think we're safe to proceed.
If the ball is coming back into play, this is a slam dunk spot for the National League MVP hopeful. He's gone 4-for-15 off Cease in his career with a home run and a double, producing a splendid .385 Expected Batting Average and 1.037 Expected Slugging Percentage off the righty. He's also led the Dodgers in total bases versus "power" pitchers as classified by Baseball-Reference, who sit in the top-third of the league in strikeouts plus walks.
In that split, Ohtani has hit .298 with a .608 slugging percentage, finding 11 homers, 12 doubles and two triples to account for 25 of his 47 hits. I'm a believer in Ohtani in what will be the first postseason game of his career.
Jackson Merrill 2+ Total Bases (+110)
Finally, we'll take that aforementioned risk by going with Jackson Merrill, not only to record a hit, but to go for two total bases. The reason it's a risk, is the fact that Yamamoto has posted a stellar .364 xSLG this year and held Merrill hitless in three at-bats. But I'll caution you that those at-bats came back in March when these two teams played in Japan. Merrill was playing the very first games of his career, and has only grown stronger over the course of the season.
The young star hit .314 in the second half of the season, slugging a whopping .596, and finished the final two months with an OPS well over .900. He finished his season hitting .367 over his last nine contests, and went 3-for-7 with two extra-base hits in two games against the Braves in the wild card round.
With the slugging that Merrill's done, I'm very confident in his ability to get us home with 2+ total bases here. He also owned a .301 average against ground-ball pitchers like Yamamoto, with a solid .558 slugging percentage.
