Dodgers vs Mets Odds & Picks: Game 1 Predictions (5/28)
| Los Angeles Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 -130 | 7.5 -118o / -102u | -198 |
| New York Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 +110 | 7.5 -118o / -102u | +164 |
If any two teams in MLB needed an extra day to get their minds right, it would be the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets.
The Mets have lost seven of their last 10 games, while the Dodgers have dropped five straight. Something will have to give here.
Find my Dodgers vs Mets prediction on the run line for Game 1 of their doubleheader below.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers' bats have gone dormant during the losing streak, with LA scoring three or fewer runs in four of the five losses. They finished a series in Great American Ballpark, a park known for yielding runs, against a mediocre Reds pitching staff with one run in each of the final two games. While the Dodgers boast MLB's best lineup, the bottom part of the order is total dead weight. Sure, the Dodgers have Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith and Teoscar Hernandez atop the lineup — but the other four starters hit below .250.
On the mound for the Dodgers on Tuesday is highly-paid right-hander Tyler Glasnow, who's pitching to a 3.09 ERA and 2.45 FIP over 67 innings with an MLB-best 11.69 K/9. Glasnow is coming off a string of rough starts — allowing seven earned runs to the Diamondbacks and Reds in only 10 innings. The bigger issue here is his lack of length — not his height, he's plenty tall, but how deep the Dodgers need him to pitch six or seven innings a start.
The bullpen is in rough shape, with closer Evan Phillips still rehabbing an injury and Ryan Brasier, Brusdar Graterol and Joe Kelly on the shelf. Coming into the year, that's probably the four highest-leverage arms for the Dodgers, and now it's Alex Vesia, JP Feyereisen, Blake Treinen and Michael Grove as the four go-to options for Dave Roberts.
New York Mets
When a professional baseball owner is tweeting apologies to fans for his team losing games in May, you can get a sense of the temperature in the building. It's running hot for the Mets, as they've lost seven of their past 10 games, multiple in excruciating fashion. Between Reed Garrett allowing five runs in one inning to Edwin Diaz blowing a save the next day, it's a rough time for the Mets.
Despite the struggles, the Mets lineup is performing to the tune of a 102 wRC+. The Mets have a much deeper lineup since Mark Vientos came up from the minors and has a 229 wRC+ in 10 games, and J.D. Martinez is coming back from an injury. Adding a few extra pieces to the middle of the order eases the pressure on the stars — Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor.
For Lindor, it's been a bizarre season. He was hitting for power early, but that's about it. In the past seven games, Lindor is batting .323 with no home runs. The Mets probably prefer him putting the ball in play instead of hitting for power since Alonso and Martinez generate plenty of power.
Opposing Glasnow is Tylor Megill, who's shown promise in his two starts since returning from injury. Megill faced the Guardians and Brewers, and while the Mets lost both games, he allowed just four runs in nine innings. However, Megiill's 4.13 xERA and 4.57 xFIP suggest some regression could strike soon. His track record isn't that of a 3.00 ERA pitcher, so he'll likely regress to some extent, but just how strong is the regression? That's what I'd be worried about for Mets fans.
Dodgers vs. Mets
Betting Pick & Prediction
I'm eyeing the Dodgers -1.5 run line for the first game of Tuesday's doubleheader.
Glasnow is due for a bounce-back start, and even his worst starts are three or four runs at most, while Megill's downside is much worse. I ragged on the Dodgers' offense earlier, but the reality is, that's the best top five of any lineup in baseball. It should lead to plenty of runs from the Dodgers in the first game en route to securing a multi-run victory.
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