After a 9-0 Dodgers thumping in Game 1, the Mets responded by jumping out to a 6-0 lead in Game 2 and holding on for a 7-3 victory. The NLCS shifts coasts with the series tied at a game apiece.
Read on for my Dodgers vs Mets player props for Game 3.
Dodgers vs Mets Game 3 Player Props
- Luis Severino Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (+100, FanDuel)
- Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In (+110, BetMGM)
Luis Severino Player Props: Mets Starter Should Provide Length
In Game 1 of the Mets NL Wild-Card Series against the Brewers, I backed Luis Severino's outs-recorded line in part because the Mets had played a doubleheader the day before.
The Mets will have a rested bullpen after an off day yesterday.
However, they will play the next three days just like a regular season series. That means manager Carlos Mendoza would prefer not to burn through his bullpen if possible, particularly with a pitcher he trusts on the mound.
Severino has not been flawless in the postseason, as he has allowed three runs in each of his two starts against the Brewers and the Phillies. During the start in Milwaukee, he threw over 70 pitches in less than four innings, but Mendoza trusted him to battle through. As a result, Severino went six innings in each of those starts.
Severino has tossed six innings in six of his last seven starts dating back to the regular season, walking only 10 in 41 2/3 innings — limiting the free passes will help keep his pitch count in check tonight.
If he allows three runs or less, Severino likely gets at least one out in the sixth inning and cashes this line.
Pete Alonso Player Props: Mets Slugger To Dominate In Plus Matchup
If not for Pete Alonso's dramatic three-run homer with two outs in the top of the ninth inning in Game 3 against the Brewers, the Mets would not be playing tonight.
However, Alonso's postseason story did not end there.
He is tied with Mark Vientos for the team lead with three home runs this postseason. He has also driven in six runs and scored six runs himself to go along with a .996 OPS.
As a result, Alonso has hit his hits + runs + RBIs line in four of his past five games, averaging 2.2 per game.
He gets a great matchup against Walker Buehler in Game 3. Alonso is 5-for-14 (.357) with four home runs, eight runs batted in, and a 1.571 OPS lifetime against Buehler.
Buehler was more dominant earlier in his career and carried a 3.27 career ERA entering 2024. But he's been an easy fade in 2024, posting a 5.38 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 75 1/3 innings. He allowed six runs on seven hits in five innings with zero strikeouts against the Padres in his only NLDS start.
Alonso will likely be a factor if the Mets offense gets going, given his crucial spot in the middle of the order.
