The Cleveland Guardians roll out left-hander Matthew Boyd, while right-hander Landon Knack takes the mound for the Los Angeles Dodgers on Friday night at Dodger Stadium. Opening pitch is set for 10:10 p.m. ET on MLB.TV.
Let's take a look at the latest odds and cook up a Dodgers vs Guardians parlay for Friday night.
Dodgers vs Guardians Parlay Picks for Friday
- Matthew Boyd Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)
- Landon Knack Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125)
- Guardians ML (+130)
Parlay Odds: +254 (DraftKings)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Matthew Boyd Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)
Guardians vs. Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. ET
We are first going to back Cleveland's left-hander. Through four starts this season, Boyd boasts a 2.38 ERA and 0.84 WHIP.
While that is a small sample size, his underlying metrics are promising. If he officially qualified, Boyd would rank in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, walk rate and barrel rate.
Specifically, we are going to back the southpaw in the prop market as he also ranks in the top half of the league in whiff and strikeout rates. You can currently find his strikeout prop at 4.5, which is a doable total considering that Boyd is averaging five strikeouts per start thus far.
This success in the strikeout department is likely to continue against Los Angeles. Through 45 combined career plate appearances against Boyd, this current Dodgers lineup possesses a fade-worthy 28.9% strikeout rate and 29.8% whiff rate.
Landon Knack Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125)
Guardians vs. Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. ET
At the same time, we are going to fade Knack in the same market. The rookie is 2-2 through 10 appearances on the mound this season with a 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.
While those are strong numbers, his analytics suggest that regression is looming. Entering this matchup, Knack possesses a 3.55 xERA and ranks in the 21st percentile or lower in average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
We are once again attacking the prop market as Knack also ranks in the bottom half of the league in chase, whiff and strikeout rates. These woes are likely to continue against Cleveland, a team that ranks third in the league in strikeout rate when facing right-handed pitching this season.
Guardians ML (+130)
Guardians vs. Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. ET
If we are simultaneously backing Cleveland's starting pitching while fading Los Angeles', then a highly correlated outcome would for the Guardians to also win this game. Boyd outranks Knack in ERA, WHIP, xERA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Meanwhile, Cleveland sports the best bullpen in baseball. The Guardians' relief staff ranks first in ERA, second in xFIP and first in FIP.
Subsequently, Los Angeles' bullpen trails them in all three of those key categories. That just leaves the hitting, which is the Dodgers' lone advantage.
The hitting advantage is the main reason that Los Angeles is the betting favorite, but Cleveland is capable of manufacturing runs as it ranks in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, home runs and stolen bases. This hitting imbalance is also mostly leveled when you consider that this current Dodgers lineup possesses a fade-worthy .225 BA, .225 SLG and .253 wOBA through 45 combined career plate appearances against Boyd.
