Dodgers vs Giants Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-155 | 9 -112o / -108u | -1.5 +136 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+130 | 9 -112o / -108u | +1.5 -162 |
The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants face off in the second game of a four-game set between NL West rivals on Tuesday night at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers took Game 1 and will be aiming to secure a series split at the very least.
Los Angeles has been among the best teams in the National League this year, posting a record of 60-41. It owns an 8 1/2 game lead in the division, and barring a major collapse, has a very high probability of playing in the postseason. San Francisco is on the outside looking. At 48-53, the Giants sit 12 games behind the Dodgers and four games below the cutoff for the last NL wild card spot.
With the trade deadline coming up, it'll be interesting to see if the Giants start selling or if they become buyers to make a push into October.
Dodgers vs Giants odds have Los Angeles installed as a -155 moneyline favorite; the over/under is 9 (-112o / -108u).
Los Angeles Dodgers
Landon Knack will get the start for the Dodgers tonight. The rookie owns a 3.23 ERA with 36 strikeouts and a 1.05 WHIP in 39 innings this season.
However, Knack also has an xERA of 4.00 and a SIERA of 3.98. He has been extremely fortunate with runners on base, coming into this game with a 91.2% strand rate.
Knack does a solid job of avoiding walks (75th percentile), but he doesn’t have the best put-away stuff. He ranks in the 53rd percentile in strikeout rate and 42nd percentile in whiff rate.
When batters make contact against Knack, they typically hit it hard. The Dodgers' starter ranks in the third percentile in hard-hit rate, seventh percentile in barrel rate and first percentile in average exit velocity. Most of these are in the air as well, as he ranks in the seventh percentile in ground-ball rate.
The Dodgers’ offense is possibly the best in baseball, ranking first in wRC+, OBP and wOBA, and second in SLG, ISO and runs scored.
Los Angeles also walks at the second-highest rate in the league while striking out less than league average (19th).
To boot, the Dodgers rank fifth in hard-hit rate, sixth in barrel rate and fourth in exit velocity. They also have the lowest ground-ball rate in the league, which should serve them well today against San Francisco starter Jordan Hicks.
San Francisco Giants
Hicks has done well this season considering it's his first as a full-time starter. Through 95 innings, Hicks has a 3.79 ERA with a 4.75 xERA and 4.26 SIERA.
One of the most interesting things about Hicks' game is that his ground-ball rate has dropped well below his career averages. His career average sits at 57.4%, and he has never had a mark better than 57.6% in a season. But now, he's at 50.5% this year — a mark that's good for the 84th percentile.
Some of that can be attributed to his pitch usage. Hicks has gone from using his sinker 64.3% of the time last year to just 50.7% this season. Plus, he has now developed a splitter that he uses 21.0% of the time.
Hicks’ strikeouts are down, but so are his walks. He ranks in the 34th percentile and 38th percentile in those two categories, respectively.
He has struggled with allowing quality contact this season, ranking in the 22nd percentile in barrel rate, 15th percentile in hard-hit rate and 19th percentile in average exit velocity. Keeping the ball on the ground has helped his overall numbers, but San Francisco backers still don’t want to see that hard of contact allowed.
The Giants offense has been decent this season, ranking 13th in wRC+ and 16th in wOBA. They don’t hit for a ton of power — they sit 19th in SLG and 18th in ISO — but they strike out around league average and have the ninth-best walk rate.
Like the Dodgers, the Giants also don’t hit the ball on the ground very often. They're 27th in ground-ball rate, hitting grounders just 40.4% of the time.
San Francisco doesn’t hit the ball quite as hard as its NL West counterpart, though, coming in at 12th in barrel rate and 15th in hard-hit rate and exit velocity.
Dodgers vs Giants
Betting Pick & Prediction
Hicks has had a solid debut season as a starter, but his results have outperformed his underlying numbers to this point.
A lot of his success has come from keeping the ball on the ground despite opponents making solid contact. I don’t think he'll find ways to keep doing that against the Dodgers.
This L.A. offense elevates the ball while hitting it hard, which is a bad matchup for Hicks. The Dodgers are also patient at the plate and don’t strike out a ton, which are two more weaknesses that Hicks has had.
Overall, I think that Los Angeles has a good chance of scoring multiple runs on Hicks tonight.
I think the Giants can hit Knack hard as well, but I’m less confident in their offense.
Still, I like taking the over in the first five innings here. Both of these pitchers allow a ton of hard contact and are facing opponents that put the ball in the air, which should lead to some scoring.
