The Dodgers hand the ball to right-hander Landon Knack while right-hander Logan Webb takes the mound for the Giants on Friday at Oracle Park.
Let's take a look at a few elements in this game and cook up a same game parlay for Dodgers vs Giants on Friday, June 28.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Dodgers vs Giants MLB Parlay: SGP Picks
- Landon Knack Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+108)
- Logan Webb Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-136)
- Over 7.5 (-104)
Parlay Odds: +433 (FanDuel)
Landon Knack Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+108)
Knack certainly isn't a poor prospect — he's a former second-round draft pick with a lot of potential. With that said, he's currently overperforming and is due for regression.
The right-hander boasts a 2.10 ERA and 0.94 WHIP through his first five career starts. However, Knack possesses a 3.28 xERA and would rank (if he qualified) in the bottom half of the league in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
Specifically, I want to capitalize on fading Knack in the strikeout department. He ranks in the bottom half of the league in chase, whiff and strikeout rates.
Furthermore, San Francisco ranks in the top half of the league in strikeout rate.
Logan Webb Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-136)
Meanwhile, Webb is also due for regression. Despite posting a 3.16 ERA and 1.22 WHIP through 17 starts this season, the right-hander possesses a 4.34 xERA and ranks in the 12th percentile or lower in xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
He also ranks in the 10th percentile in whiff rate and 42nd percentile in strikeout rate.
Webb has recorded five or fewer strikeouts in two of his past three starts.
These woes are likely to continue against Los Angeles, a team Webb is 3-4 against over the past seven meetings with a 4.78 ERA and 1.49 WHIP.
He's recorded five or fewer strikeouts in five of those seven outings.
Over 7.5 (-104)
If we're fading both starting pitchers, then a highly correlated outcome would be a high-scoring affair.
These are two of the better lineups in baseball as each team ranks in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA and OBP.
The Dodgers are likely to capitalize on Webb's expected regression, given that they boast a .284 xBA, .450 xSLG and .352 xwOBA against Webb through 154 combined career plate appearances.
There have been eight or more total runs scored in 10 of San Francisco's past 14 games.
Lastly, the Giants' bullpen is fade-worthy. San Francisco's relief pitching ranks 20th in ERA.
