Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 9.5 -120o / +100u | +210 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 -130 | 9.5 -120o / +100u | -260 |
You know what’s a great way to start a Sunday morning? Some early morning baseball, with first pitch at 11:35 a.m. ET and 8:35 a.m. PT on the West Coast.
The Diamondbacks rattled Taijuan Walker en route to a win in Game 1 of this NLCS rematch and the Phillies uncorked 12 runs in Game 2 for an easy win, so the Sunday finale is for all the marbles.
Let's get to my Diamondbacks vs Phillies Sunday prediction.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks appeared in the World Series last season despite narrowly making the playoffs. It's been a mixed bag so far in 2024, with Arizona sitting at 38-39 with a -1 run differential. That's about as mediocre as it gets, but can the D-Backs sneak a series win?
Slade Cecconi gets another start for the Diamondbacks following the best start of his season earlier this week against the Nationals. Cecconi went six scoreless innings with three hits and six punchouts in a start he desperately needed to build momentum. It feels unlikely Cecconi will build on the stout performance since his 5.90 ERA is joined by a 5.41 FIP. Yes, it's better than his ERA, so he probably won't completely bottom out, but Cecconi isn't a very good pitcher and remains a prime fade candidate.
On offense, the Diamondbacks handle left-handers quite well. Since May 1, seven of their likely starters boast wRC+'s above 100 against southpaws, led by lefty-masher Ketel Marte (201 wRC+). Marte is one of the sport's most underrated players; he can play outfield if needed, but is back to his primary second base with an outstanding 134 wRC+ this year. However, Marte is just 6-for-26 in the past seven games, so he's on a bit of a slide right now.
The key here is a pair of veterans — Christian Walker (109 wRC+ since May 1 vs. lefties) — and Randall Grichuk (136 wRC+ in that span), who absolutely crushes sinkers. Grichuk bats .421 with a .731 slugging percentage against sinkers.
Philadelphia Phillies
Despite a shaky 4-6 record in the past 10 games, the Phillies remain the only National League team with 50 wins. Every major league team scuffles, but the Phillies are among the top teams in baseball.
With Trea Turner back from injury, the Phillies lineup is closer to what it will be in the postseason. The quartet of Turner, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Alec Bohm will look to give Cecconi nightmares. Harper finished off a 3-for-4 game with a homer Saturday, and he boasts a 184 wRC+ versus right-handers since June 1.
It's June, and that's Schwarber's best month historically. His success in the summer continues, as his splits have evened out thanks to a 179 wRC and .288 average this month against righties. He was batting around .200 against righties for the first few months, but June turned his season numbers around. Schwarber sets the tone for the Phillies lineup at the leadoff spot.
In his first start since earning a four-year contract extension, Christopher Sanchez will hope to stymie the Diamondbacks offense. Sanchez's pitching repertoire consists of three pitches — led by a high-usage sinker (48% of the time) and changeup (32% of the time). The southpaw wants to miss barrels, and he typically achieves that goal, with a ground-ball rate in the 97th percentile and a barrel rate in the 85th. Sanchez isn't a flash in the pan either if the underlying metrics tell the story — a 2.54 FIP indicates his 2.91 ERA should remain intact.
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Phillies should secure a series victory Sunday mainly because of the pitching advantage. Sanchez should roll through six or seven innings before giving way to the Phillies bullpen. Hopefully, the Jose Alvarado, Orion Kerkering, Jeff Hoffman combination can provide enough strong pitching late. If you want Phillies moneyline at -190, then it's a strong recommendation from me, particularly in the parlay department.
My best bet is actually the Phillies run line, though. You can grab the Phillies -1.5 at +102, which feels like a strong bet since the hometown team owns the lineup and pitching advantage.
Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+104 via FanDuel | Play to -115)
