The Arizona Diamondbacks narrowly held onto a nail biting 8-7 win over the San Francisco Giants in Tuesday's series opener. Arizona is in desperate need of wins if it wants any chance of catching the Dodgers in the NL West, while also trying to hold onto its wild card position.
Well, there's no better time to construct another single game parlay for an important game. So, here's Diamondbacks vs Giants MLB parlay picks for Wednesday, September 4 (9:45 p.m. ET on MLB.TV).
Sean Paul's Diamondbacks vs Giants MLB Parlay Picks for 9/4
- Diamondbacks -1.5 (+124)
- Hayden Birdsong Over 2.5 Walks (-185)
- Corbin Carroll 2+ Total Bases (+120)
Parlay Odds: +410 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Diamondbacks -1.5 (+124)
I'll be honest, the Diamondbacks' bullpen nearly squandering a six-run lead made me second-guess this pick.
Then I thought about it, looked at the Diamondbacks' stats over the past month and returned to reality with my first leg of the parlay.
Arizona lapped the rest of the sport in wRC+ with a dazzling 135 in August that included a 10% walk rate, 47 homers and a strikeout rate below 20%. You'd be hard-pressed to find many better months recently than this Diamondbacks run.
The thing is, I don't think the Diamondbacks' offense had an outlier month. This feels like one of the best offenses in baseball, more so with Christian Walker returning from injury.
I'm taking the Diamondbacks' run line at +124 to help bolster the odds on this parlay. Arizona should've easily covered the run line yesterday if it weren't for a stunning bullpen collapse.
The good thing? San Francisco will send Hayden Birdsong to the mound, who enters with a 5.14 ERA and 5.14 FIP. Nope, that's not a typo. Birdsong has a matching ERA and FIP, which is equally concerning given the elevated ERA.
The only part of Birdsong's profile that stands out in a positive light is an 11.9 K/9. Besides striking out batters, Birdsong doesn't offer a ton to the Giants' rotation, especially since he struggles to go deep into games and walks too many guys.
Arizona boasts a clear pitching matchup advantage as Zac Gallen takes the mound. After a rough start against the Dodgers last week, Gallen will look to rebound and benefit from positive regression.
While Gallen's ERA looks high at 3.78, his FIP sits at 3.36, which is much closer to his FIP from last year.
I think we'll see the best of Gallen in the season's final month, beginning with a favorable matchup in the Bay Area.
Hayden Birdsong Over 2.5 Walks (-185)
You won't find young pitchers who are immune to growing pains. Okay, well except Paul Skenes.
The Giants aren't sending Skenes to the hill, though. They'll send Birdsong, who's biggest problem is consistently hitting the zone. Birdsong is a hard-throwing righty who's averaging just shy of 96 mph on his four-seamer. But his control is a major issue, as he walks over 5.5 batters per nine.
The Diamondbacks boast the perfect attack to take advantage of Birdsong's walk problems. They posted a 10% BB rate in August, which ranked fourth in the MLB.
Birdsong walked three-plus batters in five of his past six outings, all of which went fewer than five innings. I think Birdsong will have a fairly short outing due to his walk issues creeping up. That will be beneficial in more ways than one for this SGP.
If Birdsong walks guys and gets yanked early, it puts pressure on a Giants' bullpen that covered 6 1/3 innings last night once Kyle Harrison got pulled in the third inning. The more guys Birdsong walks, the more it helps this prop and likely leads to a barrage of runs to support the run line leg.
I'm grabbing over on 2.5 walks for Birdsong at -185. I'm willing to lay the juice because this play feels like a relatively safe leg of the parlay due to the Diamondbacks' patience and Birdsong's command woes.
Corbin Carroll 2+ Total Bases (+120)
Is there any other option for a total bases prop than Corbin Carroll? I don't think so.
Carroll is back to his true form as one of the best players in the MLB. You can still grab Carroll's two-plus total bases at +120, which is somehow priced better than Jake McCarthy's for the same prop (+110).
It's pretty clear who the better hitter of the two is. Plus, who wants to pitch around Carroll? If you walk him, then he'll instantly put himself in scoring position via a stolen base. He should see hittable pitches.
It's been a hot month for Carroll, earning NL Player of the Month while hitting .298 with an OPS over 1.041 and 11 homers in his past 30 games.
The power surge could be the key to cashing this plus-money prop, as Carroll has crossed the two-plus total bases mark in seven of his past eight games, including the series opener against San Francisco.
Birdsong is actually a reverse splits pitcher, albeit in a smaller 11-start sample. Lefties hit just .206 against Birdsong compared to .250 against righties. While this stat isn't encouraging for taking Carroll's over total bases number, it might factor into the shocking +120 figure.
Will it really matter, though? Carroll is an elite hitter, and facing an inexperienced arm like Birdsong should bode well for him. I love grabbing this prop.
