Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Odds
| Arizona Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+166 | 9 -106o / -114u | +1.5 -128 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-198 | 9 -106o / -114u | -1.5 +106 |
The Arizona Diamondbacks will travel to Chavez Ravine on Tuesday to face the Los Angeles Dodgers. This will be the first of a three-game set between these two NL West rivals at Dodger Stadium.
As we would’ve expected before the season, the Dodgers (52-33) are among the best teams in MLB and have been running over everyone this season despite some key injuries. They currently have a 7 1/2-game lead over the Padres for the NL West lead and the second-best record in the NL.
The Diamondbacks (41-43) are currently two games below .500 and are in the battle for the third wild card spot, along with most of the National League. They sit fifth in line in the wild-card race for three spots, 2 1/2 games out.
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers odds for Tuesday have the Dodgers as heavy -198 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 9 (-106o /-114u). For my betting prediction for this NL West clash, I'll be targeting the Diamondbacks vs Dodgers F5 total.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona will be trotting out Ryne Nelson for the start tonight. The 26-year-old righty has started 13 games this season with a 5.69 ERA, 5.17 xERA, and a 4.68 SIERA. While his performance has been a bit worse than his expected numbers, he had a 5.31 ERA over the full season in 2023 as well, so it’s likely this is about what he is.
Nelson has struck out only 46 batters in 68 IP this season. Among qualified pitchers, he ranks in the sixth percentile in whiff rate and seventh percentile in strikeout rate. He ranks around league average in Stuff+, although he ranks 14th in Location+.
This Location+ number likely comes from Nelson not walking many batters. His 5.9% walk rate ranks in the 79th percentile. His location isn't good in terms of preventing quality contact, as Nelson ranks in the 12th percentile in barrel rate, 16th percentile in hard-hit rate, and 10th percentile in average exit velocity allowed.
Arizona has been solid on the offensive end this season, ranking 12th in wOBA and wRC+. They have the eighth-highest OBP and 14th-highest SLG while striking out at the eighth-lowest rate in baseball.
The Diamondbacks’ Statcast metrics aren’t the most impressive. They rank 21st in hard-hit rate, 21st in barrel rate, and 18th in average exit velocity. Because of this, they are 21st in xSLG and 22nd in xwOBACON despite their actual output exceeding this.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Bobby Miller will take the mound for the Dodgers tonight. Miller had spent much of the year injured but has struggled regardless. He has a 6.75 ERA and 5.89 xERA on the season. In his rookie season last year, he had a 3.76 ERA over 124 1/3 IP, which may be more indicative of who Miller is as a pitcher when healthy.
Miller has made two starts since returning from a two-month-long absence. In these two starts, he allowed 5 runs over 6 1/3 innings in Colorado before allowing three runs over just two innings against the White Sox on June 25th.
Miller ranks among the best pitchers in baseball by the Stuff+ model (121), albeit in a small sample size. The issue is location and command (92 Location+), which ranks 184th out of 191 starting pitchers with 20 or more innings pitched. Last year, his Stuff+ was similar (123), but his Location+ was far better (102), which made him a much more reliable starter than he is right now.
Los Angeles’ offense has been one of the best in baseball and certainly the best in the National League. The Dodgers lead MLB in wRC+, xwOBA, and OBP while ranking second in SLG, ISO, and walk rate. They also rank top-five in every batted-ball metric.
Since Mookie Betts went down on June 16th, the offense has still been producing at a high level. Since that date, they have a 123 wRC+ and .339 wOBA, which is surprisingly better than their full-season marks.
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Bobby Miller has everything you would want to be a top-of-the-rotation pitcher. However, he has been bad and banged up all season so far. I believe he will get it back on track once he can reduce his walk rate and allow less quality contact.
Arizona’s offense hasn’t been squaring up the ball this season, and while their production has been fine, this isn’t a matchup that I am scared to back Miller in.
While I want to look past Miller’s results this season because of his underlying Stuff+ numbers and what he did last year, I can’t do the same with Nelson. This is the second season in a row where Nelson has an ERA over five, and I don't trust him against a mighty Los Angeles offense.
I like Miller longer-term, but with his current situation uncertain, I think I’ll stay away from betting on him tonight. Instead, I’ll be looking at this matchup of Nelson vs. the Dodgers, where L.A. should have a clear upper hand.
I’ll be picking the Dodgers to score over 2.5 runs in the first five frames, as I think they can put a few runs on the board against Nelson.
Pick: Dodgers F5 TT Over 2.5 (-125, DraftKings) | Play to 2.5 (-135)
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