Welcome back, baseball! The second half of the MLB season year is here, beginning with a Friday afternoon showdown between the Chicago Cubs and Arizona Diamondbacks.
There’s no better way to welcome in baseball than constructing the perfect Diamondbacks vs Cubs same-game parlay.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Diamondbacks vs Cubs | Friday Same-Game Parlay Picks
- Ian Happ 2+ total bases alt line (+140)
- Cubs ML (-105)
- Ryne Nelson Under 4.5 K’s
Parlay Odds: +550 (DraftKings)
It was a slow start to the year for Cubs veteran Ian Happ — the lone holdover from the 2016 World Series winning team. He batted just .216 with a 92 wRC+ in the season’s first month, but he’s caught fire in July — posting a team best 200 wRC+. Plus, Happ re-discovered his power stroke, cracking nine homers in the Cubs past 30 games.
Happ feasts on right-handed pitchers, particularly in the power department. 11 of Happ’s 15 home runs are against right-handers, and he slugs at a .456 clip with a 133 wRC+ versus righties.
This feels like a highly favorable matchup for Happ, and I’ll look to capitalize on his hitting strengths with O1.5 total bases.
I think the Cubs win the game outright on a weekly holiday in Chi-town — known as Steele day. Well, technically that’s not a holiday, but he’s proved to be a profitable pitcher in his past five starts. So, it’s a holiday for me.
Steele is coming off a pair of dominating starts, shutting down the Orioles typically potent offense in seven scoreless and a one-run complete game against the Angels.
In Steele’s first start of 2024, he suffered an injury and didn’t return until May. Steele has pitched to a 2.71 ERA and 3.22 FIP since returning. He's a maven for soft contact, ranking in the 80th percentile in barrel rate, 71st in hard hit rate and 79th in avg exit velocity. Plus, Steele owns a strong 1.88 BB/9.
Shutting down the Diamondbacks won’t come easily. The Snake's offense is very much alive, posting a 132 wRC+ in July (4th best in baseball.)
Even still, the Diamondbacks didn’t go on some crazy run. They’ve won six of their past ten games, but two of the three were against the Blue Jays woeful pitching staff. Steele & co. should offer a better plan to shut down the Diamondbacks bats.
Opposing Steele is a far-less established arm in Ryne Nelson, whom recently brought his ERA below 5.00 for the first time this season. Nelson was due for some positive regression, as his 4.14 FIP tells a different story. Don't expect Nelson to strike out many batters — nor walk guys. He generates a lot of contact, and sometimes it can be some hard contact, which is what the Cubs will hope for.
The Cubs' offense has really turned a corner in July. They rank sixth in MLB at wRC+ this month, buoyed by Happ’s 200 wRC+, Michael Busch’s 158 and Seiya Suzuki with 162. What’s the common denominator between the slugging trio? All three crush right-handed pitchers, like Ryne Nelson.
Even with Cody Bellinger on the shelf with a broken finger, the Cubs offense is still humming. That wouldn’t have been possible last year with their Bellinger-reliant attack. In part, Bellinger’s production dipped considerably, but the Cubs offense is deeper in 2024.
Let’s hope the Cubs bullpen that gave away games constantly in June doesn’t show cracks in this one.
Prior to Nelson striking out five batters in back-to-back starts against Toronto and San Diego, most of his pregame K-lines sat around 3.5. Nelson’s recent surge in strikeout pushed the prop to 4.5 at plus money on the under — which feels like a bargain since Nelson struck five or more batters out in five of his 17 appearances (15 starts.)
The numbers shine on Nelson’s strikeout troubles as well. He ranks in the sixth percentile in whiff percentage and fourth in strikeout rate. Now, the Cubs have some swing & miss prevalence — ranking 10th in baseball with 23.5% strikeout rate. But Nelson wants quick outs via the sinker, so the Cubs should work quick at bats since Nelson doesn’t walk guys.
