The Seattle Mariners host the Detroit Tigers on Tuesday, April 1. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on ROOT Sports NW and can be streamed on MLB.TV.
We're set to see a great pitching matchup — Casey Mize vs. Logan Gilbert — and will take a look at the best way to find value backing such an affair in a historically low-scoring park.
Find my Tigers vs Mariners prediction and first five innings (F5) pick below.
Tigers vs Mariners Predictions
- Tigers vs Mariners pick: First Five Innings Under 4 (-130) | Play to Under 3.5 (-105)
My Tigers vs Mariners best bet is the First Five Innings Under 4 (-130). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Tigers vs Mariners Odds, Lines, Best Bet
| Detroit Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 7 +105o / -125u | +150 |
| Seattle Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 7 +105o / -125u | -178 |
- Tigers vs Mariners Moneyline: Tigers +150, Mariners -178
- Tigers vs Mariners Total: 7 (+105o / -125u)
- Tigers vs Mariners Spread: Tigers +1.5 (-160), Mariners -1.5 (+135
- Tigers vs Mariners Pick: First Five Innings Under 4
Tigers vs Mariners Preview, Predictions
Tigers Betting Preview
The King of Spring was at it again in March, teasing us with all the potential that was promised when he went first overall in the MLB Draft seven years ago. Casey Mize, just as he did a year ago, put forth an impressive showing with a 1.89 ERA over 19 innings, tallying 25 punchouts with a .164 average against him.
He flashed similar strikeout upside a season ago, but finished with a 17.3% punchout rate next to a tidy 6.4% walk rate. The dilemma for the 27-year-old was that he failed to record enough outs via ground balls to make things manageable and came home with a .286 Expected Batting Average, which put him in the bottom 4% of pitchers.
His fastball velocity jumped, and so did his pitch usage, but he failed to locate it well enough to avoid the damage that would ensue — yielding a .274 xBA and a .445 Expected Slugging. We'll see how it looks here, but it's best to take a wait-and-see approach.
As for this offense, things have only continued to trend upward, despite the loss of Gleyber Torres to injury. Now, Detroit is down some big bats with its starter at the keystone joining two corner outfielders on the Injured List, but Justyn Henry-Malloy was elevated back to the big-league level on Monday and reached four times in that game.
Mariners Betting Preview
Seattle endured a brutal start from Emerson Hancock on Monday and is counting the days until George Kirby is healthy enough to rejoin the club. The good news is that Logan Gilbert can step to the hill for his second start of the season.
Things started out well enough against the Athletics, when Gilbert allowed just a solo home run and a single across seven innings of one-run ball with eight strikeouts. He's coming off a year where he flaunted an incredible 3.14 xERA and a borderline elite 27.4% strikeout rate, along with a top-5% walk rate (under 5%).
Gilbert will hunt both strikeouts and ground balls, something that should theoretically work against a Tigers team that was far better against fly-ball arms in 2024. The issue at hand is that Detroit's lineup looks awfully different with some new faces and improved young bats, and the Tigers have also continued to produce against right-handers with their lefty-heavy order.
At the dish, Seattle has picked up where it left off last season, hitting a dreadful .188 with one of the worst strikeout rates in baseball. The only positive is that it's at least drawn walks and hit for some sporadic power and did look better against ground-ballers last year with the 11th-best OPS in the league.
Tigers vs Mariners Prediction, F5 Pick
If last season is any indication, the Mariners will see plenty of fastballs from Mize. A year ago, against fastballs from right-handers, Seattle ranked 15th in Expected wOBA.
The issue? The Mariners were fourth-worst in xBA, meaning a combination of walks and slugging brought them up to that spot. Separating walks and contact will be important to handicapping this one as Mize has done an excellent job of limiting the free passes.
Detroit, on the other hand, has been extremely guilty of striking out this season. While it did have to face the Dodgers in the opening series, this lineup is still full of free-swingers. With its issues in making contact and hitting ground-ball arms a year ago, there's little reason Gilbert can't shove again at his friendly home park.
You always have to hold your breath when backing Mize, but I feel this one should turn into a pitching battle. Detroit's bullpen has been a bit suspect at the start of the season, and Seattle's ranks just 18th in ERA, so it's best to avoid the later innings and just go with the under through five.
Pick: First Five Innings Under 4 (-130)
Moneyline
The sharp money is coming in on Detroit and it's hard to say I blame the pro bettors. I'd certainly lean toward backing the better of the two offenses, even with the matchup being tough against the far-stronger of the two pitchers.
Run Line (Spread)
The Mariners were just 26-39 to the run line as home favorites a season ago and have covered just once in five games this season. Detroit is 2-2 to the run line and covered a handsome 68.8% of the time as road 'dogs in 2024.
Over/Under
The Tigers have hit the Over in each game this season while the Mariners are a predictable 3-1-1 to the Under. We've tracked some sharp money heading toward the latter.
