Check out Derek Carty's 3 MLB player props today from THE BAT X.
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Carty's Top Props
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
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Royals vs. Tigers MLB Player Prop
Salvador Perez
Home Run
By Derek Carty
There's nothing especially special matchup-wise that I've noticed; he's facing a pretty good pitcher in Tarik Skubal — more than a pretty good pitcher, honestly.
But they're giving us the right odds on it. The BATx projections like it, and these are the types of bets that often end up being profitable.
They don't seem like great bets; they actually seem a little scary facing a pitcher like Skubal, but the books know that, and they offer us value on the other side.
So that's what we're going with.
Pick: Salvador Perez Home Run (+644 or Better)
Mariners vs. Rangers MLB Player Prop:
Bryce Miller
Under 17.5 Outs
This is another pitching prop that feels a bit scary on the surface. I like Bryce Miller in general, and I know my BAT X stuff model really likes his pitch quality this season.
However, from a betting value perspective, we are taking Bryce Miller Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (+120 at BetMGM). (Note: You can also find +116 at FanDuel and DraftKings, and I like this play down to -115).
As much as I respect Miller's talent, he is simply not a pitcher who regularly goes super deep into ballgames. Even in starts where he isn't being piggybacked—which he presumably isn't today—he still hasn't worked deep into games.
He has completed 18+ outs in only three of his 10 starts this season. While a few of those outings were controlled piggyback starts where he didn't have a realistic shot to complete six full innings, the baseline remains: the projections don't expect him to work deep here, and his track record reflects that.
THE BAT X projects a 59% win rate on this under. When you give us an implied probability edge with plus-money at +120, I am going to take it and fade Miller's length. Pitching away from T-Mobile Park in Seattle certainly helps our case as well.
Pick: Bryce Miller Under 17.5 Outs (-117 or Better)
Athletics vs. Twins MLB Player Prop
Zebby Matthews
Under 17.5 Outs
We're looking at Zebby Matthews under 17.5 outs recorded. I like it down to around -110.
If you're just going through the game logs, this looks like a terrible bet. He's gone over this number in nine of his 12 starts. But Matthews just isn't a guy who's usually allowed to throw a lot of pitches. Historically, he hasn't been able to go this deep into games, and he hasn't really looked like that great of a pitcher. If I look at the BatCast Stuff Model, it thinks his stuff has gotten significantly worse this year. His ERA is also over 5.00.
It doesn't make sense that he's gone this deep so often, and the projection isn't buying it. The projection says he should go under this number about 58% of the time. If you're going to give us plus money on that, I'm going to take it.
Zebby is a guy I was really high on last year, even when he was sporting a 5.56 ERA because of his strikeout numbers compared to his walk numbers. His strikeout rate was all the way up at 25%, while his walk rate was under 7%.
This year, the walk rate hasn't necessarily gone up, but the strikeout numbers have plummeted. I'm not sure if he's pitching through an injury or if this is just the pitcher he is.
He seems like a young pitcher because he's still inexperienced, but he's 26 now, so that's a little concerning. But we're fading him today. We'll see what the Twins get out of him the rest of the way. One more pitching prop here in the A-grade section. It's not an outs recorded prop, but it's a walks prop on a guy I had my eye on from a betting perspective entering the season. He proved me wrong.
