Cubs vs. Yankees Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+180 | 8.5 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -118 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -215 | 8.5 -110 / -110 | -1.5 -102 |
Drew Smyly may be in a bit of a slump, but overall, he has been a solid pitcher for the Chicago Cubs this season. If Smyly stays healthy, and the Cubs continue on their downward trajectory, he could fetch a decent haul at the trade deadline.
Every team needs pitching. And Smyly is particularly good at limiting opponents to weaker-than-average contact, which is why his expected numbers are good.
Smyly and the Cubs face Gerrit Cole and the New York Yankees on Saturday at Yankee Stadium.
Cole is a great pitcher. He has a tendency to yield hard contact at times, but he is the Yankees' ace for a reason. His expected numbers show some negative regression forthcoming, but otherwise, he should hold the Cubs lineup in check.
The under should be in play for Cubs vs. Yankees on Saturday if both starters pitch to the level they've shown this season.
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Chicago Cubs
Smyly holds a 4.10 ERA against a 3.80 xERA. His Barrel Rate of 6.5% is a career best. His Average Exit Velocity is 87 mph (82nd percentile) and his Hard Hit Rate is 33.1% (83rd percentile). He also has an above-average walk rate.
The Cubs have a 100 wRC+ over the last month against right-handed pitching, but most of those hurlers weren't of Gerrit Cole's caliber. They also strike out over 22% of the time, something Cole will likely exploit.
Dansby Swanson is nursing a heel injury, so it's possible Cubs give him a day off. If he's out, that leaves five active starters with a .320+ xwOBA. The bottom half of Chicago's lineup, in particular, has really struggled with righties.
In relief, the Cubs have been about average over the last month. They have a 4.30 xFIP, but a 24.7% strikeout rate. They are walking batters at a 10.1% clip, but this could improve.
They have only two active relievers with an xFIP below 4.00. That said, if Smyly can throw strikes and get past the middle of the Yankees’ order without major damage, Chicago may not have to rely so heavily on its bullpen.
New York Yankees
Cole ranks in the 41st percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the 42nd percentile in Hard Hit Rate. He is striking out 26.3% of the hitters he faces, so this is probably why his expected xERA is 3.99 (vs. a 2.79 ERA). However, the Cubs have a tendency to chase at times — he ranks in the 77th percentile in this metric.
While the top of the Yankees' lineup is great, they are still without Aaron Judge. They haven't faced too many left-handers, but in the last month, they have 118 wRC+.
Over the last month, they have four active hitters (with 10-plus plate appearances) who have an xwOBA over .320. Smyly can take advantage of the Yanks, especially with all the lefties in their lineup.
New York has been solid in relief on the season, but it has a 4.38 xFIP in the last month. However, the Yankees have four arms below the 4.00 xFIP mark. This should be enough on the back of Cole since he usually goes at least six innings.
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Cubs vs. Yankees Betting Pick
The Cubs are not a great hitting team, even if they have hit righties reasonably well lately.
The bottom half of the Yankees lineup has had some trouble with lefties, and since Smyly induces weak contact, he can tame some of those high-powered bats.
Given that each team has at least a couple relievers who can deliver clean outings, betting the under here is wise.
Pick: Under 8.5 |
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