The Tampa Bay Rays host the Cleveland Guardians on July 26, 2026. First pitch from Tropicana Field is scheduled for 12:15 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on Peacock.
The Rays are favored by -134 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the run line. The Guardians are +116 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Guardians vs Rays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Guardians vs Rays Prediction
- Guardians vs Rays Pick: Under 7.5 (-120 | Play to -125)
My Guardians vs Rays best bet is on the run total under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Guardians vs Rays Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -220 | 7 -102o / -120u | +116 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +180 | 7 -102o / -120u | -134 |
- Guardians vs Rays moneyline: Guardians +116, Rays -134
- Guardians vs Rays over/under: 7 (-102o / -120u)
- Guardians vs Rays spread: Guardians +1.5 (-220), Rays -1.5 (+180)
Guardians vs Rays Probable Pitchers
| LHP Parker Messick (CLE) | Stat | RHP Drew Rasmussen (TBR) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-5 | W-L | 8-5 |
| 2.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.5 |
| 2.68/3.24 | ERA / xERA | 3.28/3.34 |
| 3.29/3.57 | FIP / xFIP | 3.29/3.28 |
| 17.1% | K-BB% | 20.5% |
| 44.0% | GB% | 45.6% |
| .254 | BABIP | .260 |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 108 |
| 105 | Location+ | 109 |
Guardians vs Rays MLB Betting Preview
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview
Left-hander Parker Messick takes the mound for the Cleveland Guardians, and he should serve as a good candidate to back. A second-round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft, Messick has performed tremendously since last season's promotion.
Through 20 starts this year, the southpaw is 8-5 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. His underlying metrics are equally impressive.
Entering this matchup, Messick ranks in the 80th percentile or higher in xERA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. Like the majority of other teams he has faced, the Tampa Bay Rays have struggled against Messick.
In three meetings, the left-hander is 2-0 with a 0.96 ERA. There were five or fewer total runs scored in each of those three outings.
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview
In 44 combined plate appearances against Messick, this current Tampa Bay roster owns a mere .175 xBA and .226 xSLG. The Rays' offense is the biggest threat to the under not cashing in this contest, but Messick has proven that this lineup is not an issue for him.
Meanwhile, run support may be difficult to come by for Cleveland's starting pitcher. This season, the Guardians rank in the bottom five in runs scored per game, hits per game, slugging percentage and OPS.
Cleveland's woes at the dish are likely to continue against right-hander Drew Rasmussen, who gets the ball for Tampa Bay. One of the best pitchers in the American League, Rasmussen earned another All-Star nod this year.
Guardians vs Rays Pick, Betting Analysis
Through 19 starts this season, Rasmussen is 8-5 with a 3.28 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. His underlying metrics are equally dominant.
Entering this matchup, the right-hander ranks in the top quarter of the league in xERA, walk rate and hard-hit rate. With two elite pitchers and a lackluster Cleveland offense, another low-scoring affair is likely between these two teams.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-120 | Play to -125)
