The Pittsburgh Pirates (15-33) host the Cincinnati Reds (25-24) on Tuesday, May 20, 2025. First pitch from PNC Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SportsNet PIT and FanDuel Sports Ohio.
Continue below to find my Reds vs Pirates prediction and pick for the first five innings (F5) on Tuesday.
Reds vs Pirates Predictions, F5 Pick
- Reds vs Pirates picks: Pirates F5 Moneyline (+105, bet365)
My Reds vs Pirates best bet is on Pittsburgh's first five innings moneyline. Check our live MLB odds page to find the best odds.
Reds vs Pirates Odds, Lines
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +120 | 8 -102o / -118u | -155 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -142 | 8 -102o / -118u | +130 |
Reds vs Pirates Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Nick Martinez (CIN) | Stat | LHP Bailey Falter (PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-4 | W-L | 2-3 |
| 1.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 3.66 / 3.49 | ERA /xERA | 4.02 / 3.71 |
| 3.20 / 3.98 | FIP / xFIP | 4.52 / 4.77 |
| 1.16 | WHIP | 1.21 |
| 13.9% | K-BB% | 8.4% |
| 37.4% | GB% | 37% |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 110 | Location+ | 96 |
Reds vs Pirates Preview, Prediction
I don't have much faith in Pirates starter Bailey Falter, but I generally look to fade the Reds against left-handed pitching.
Cincinnati has a league-average offense against right-handed pitching but is about 20% worse than league average against southpaws. Santiago Espinal is the only regular who's considered an above-average hitter this year against southpaws.
So, with Falter, you're neutralizing or sending to the bench guys like TJ Friedl, the red-hot Will Benson, who just won NL Player of the Week, and Gavin Lux. Likewise, the Reds' one absolute superstar offensively, Elly De La Cruz, is a switch-hitter, but his OPS drops about 200 points against lefties compared to righties.
The counter, of course, is that the Pirates can't hit the broad side of a barn.
Still, I'm a non-believer in Reds starter Nick Martinez. FanGraphs' expected stats align with his 3.66 ERA, but Baseball Prospectus has his DRA closer to 4.75.
Martinez was never a big swing-and-miss pitcher, but he's now missing fewer bats than ever. His swinging-strike rate has dipped below 10%, and his first-pitch strike rate has decreased significantly.
He's a ticking time bomb. Maybe the Pirates aren't the best pick to trigger detonation, but those peripherals combined with the Reds' offense against lefties give me enough confidence to back the Buccos.
Pick: Pirates F5 ML (+105, bet365)
