The Cincinnati Reds (62-65) and Pittsburgh Pirates (59-67) begin a four-game series on Thursday night at PNC Park. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET on Bally Sports Ohio and SportsNet Pittsburgh.
A meeting of the two worst teams by record in the National League Central might not sound like the most exciting Wednesday night contest, but there still should be some fun between these long-time rivals.
Reds vs. Pirates is among the more storied rivalries in the National League. It dates back to the 1970s, when both teams were consistently atop the standings. These squads have met five times in the NLCS since 1970.
Fast-forward 50-some-odd years, and, sure, they're the two bottom teams in the division, but Cincinnati is only six games out of the last wild card spot, which isn't an impossible deficit, and both teams are hotbeds of young, league-defining talent.
Just yesterday, Cincinnati's Elly De La Cruz became the first shortstop in major league history to have a 20-homer, 60-steal season — and he did it with more than 30 games to go — an insanely impressive feat. The next-best steals total is currently at 38 this season.
Then, for the Pirates, there's rookie phenom and today's starter, Paul Skenes. If you haven't watched him pitch, you should tune into today's game because you're missing out. His fastball averages 99mph, and his expected batting average allowed is currently at .198. Did I mention both are just 22 years old? We're talking about unprecedented performance from players so young.
Let's look at the latest MLB odds, including a Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates prediction and pick for this battle between these old rivals and two of the most exciting young names in baseball.
Reds vs. Pirates Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+130 | 7.5 +100 / -120 | +1.5 -175 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-155 | 7.5 +100 / -120 | -1.5 +145 |
Reds vs Pirates Projected Starting Pitchers
| Lodolo (CIN) | Stat | Skenes (PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-5 | W-L | 7-2 |
| 1.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.6 |
| 4.55 / 3.80 | ERA /xERA | 2.30 / 2.72 |
| 4.00 / 3.95 | FIP / xFIP | 2.91 / 2.82 |
| 1.20 | WHIP | 0.97 |
| 16.7% | K-BB% | 25.5% |
| 45.1% | GB% | 48.5% |
| 106 | Stuff+ | 105 |
| 99 | Location+ | 103 |
Justin Perri’s Reds vs Pirates Preview
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview: Lodolo Looks To Stop Skid
It has not been a pretty stretch for Reds' Starter Nick Lodolo.
Since returning from the IL in July (blister), the Cincinnati southpaw has surrendered 33 runs in 40 2/3 innings across eight starts. That's good for a 7.30 ERA with a 1.46 WHIP in that span.
Lodolo's issue is clearly his fastball. It's gone from a pitch that he can rely on to one that is well below average and fails to confuse hitters. It might be the injury, but his most used pitch has lost half an inch of induced vertical break since the injury.
There's reason to think that, against a weaker offense like the Pirates, Lodolo should bounce back from his most recent start, where he allowed eight runs in less than three innings. But even a bounce back here likely still means giving up a few runs. Lodolo only has one start this year where he didn't let opponents score.
Lodolo has done better on the road, where his ERA is 3.05 compared to 6.09 at home, but the Reds are still about a .500 baseball club when traveling with a road record of 30-31.
Cincinnati might be worth a look on the spread. The Reds are 37-24 ATS when away and 40-27 ATS when made the underdog. However, the price reflects this, with a much heavier -170 price tag if you want to buy the run line.
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview: Skenes Day
The story of Paul Skenes has just four chapters thus far: dominating at LSU, dominating in the minor leagues, dominating when first called up to the majors, and now seeing his Rookie of the Year odds drop from -2000 to -105 over the course of the last two weeks.
The flame-throwing rookie had a 1.90 ERA in his first 11 games. But he's pitched to a mere mortal 3.13 ERA in five starts since, bringing his season-long mark up to 2.30.
One potential reason for the dip in performance could be the decrease in fastball velocity. Skenes was sitting closer to 99.5 mph on the fastball and is now a tick and a half down, around 98mph. It might not seem like a lot, but that's enough to take his fastball from one of the best in the majors to an above-average but tolerable pitch.
Skenes's strikeout prop is set at 7.5 with equal -115 juice on either side. This is exactly on the dot of what he has averaged across his starts this year. He's cashed the over on his strikeout prop three times in the past five starts, and he's only surpassed eight strikeouts four times on the season.
The Pirates are a strong run-line team with a 71-54 record ATS this season. They are 34-27 ATS at home but just 21-27 ATS as favorites.
Reds vs Pirates Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Pirates enter this four-game series on a bit of a slide, having lost seven of their last ten, while the Reds have split their last ten games evenly.
The money line odds on this game moved towards Pittsburgh first after the odds opened, but the Pirates have seen some buyback.
These teams met in June for two series. The Pirates won both and have a 4-2 lead on the Reds this season. All three games played at PNC Park between the teams went under the total.
It's projecting to be another cool day, as temperatures across the country have been lower all week. This should help usher in another under between these teams, which both have a propensity to struggle on offense.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-120, BetMGM) | Play to Under 7.5 (-130)
Moneyline
The Pirates have done well opening home series. They have gone 7-4 in home openers since the start of june, including when they hosted the Reds earlier this season. Pittsburgh is also 10-6 in games started by Paul Skenes. The rookie star should give the Pirates a great chance to win, which is why the Pirates are favored.
Run Line (Spread)
The Reds have done well as underdogs on the Run Line at 40-27. Given that this is a divisional matchup, there's a good chance the familiarity leads to a close game represented in the steep price for the Reds +1.5. Cincinnati and Pittsburgh have each covered at a 57% rate against other National League teams this season.
Over/Under
The National League West seems to enjoy playing low-scoring games against each other. When playing in the division, the Pirates and Reds are a combined 58% to the Under against fellow NL West teams. Look for this one to stay low-scoring.
