The Philadelphia Phillies host the Cincinnati Reds tonight. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on NBCS-PH and Reds TV.
The Phillies are favored by -116 on the moneyline and are +1.5 on the run line (-184). The Reds are -102 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the run line (+152). The total is set at 10 runs.
Find my Reds vs Phillies prediction and moneyline pick below, as well as probable pitchers, viewing information, the weather report, and more.
Reds vs Phillies Predictions, Pick
- Reds vs Phillies Pick: Reds Moneyline (+105 , DraftKings)
My Reds vs Phillies best bet is on Cincinnati to win. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Reds vs Phillies Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +152 | 10 -100o / -122u | -102 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -184 | 10 -100o / -122u | -116 |
- Reds vs Phillies moneyline: Reds -102, Phillies -116
- Reds vs Phillies over/under: 10 (-100o / -122u)
- Reds vs Phillies spread: Reds -1.5 (+152 ), Phillies +1.5 (-184)
Reds vs Phillies Probable Pitchers
| Nick Lodolo | Stat | Andrew Painter |
|---|---|---|
| 24-23 | W-L | 24-23 |
| -0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 8.68 / 8.80 | ERA / xERA | 6.21 / 4.97 |
| 7.49 / 4.97 | FIP / xFIP | 4.82 / 4.20 |
| 9.3 | K-BB% | 12.8 |
| 37.9 | GB% | 39.3 |
| .308 | BABIP | .350 |
| 107 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 93 | Location+ | 103 |
Reds vs Phillies Preview, Prediction
The Phillies are rolling after an impressive sweep of the Pirates in Pittsburgh over the weekend. But they now arrive at the weak spot of their rotation in Andrew Painter. The rookie right-hander now has a 6.21 ERA in his first year in the senior circuit with a strikeout rate below 20%.
You'd think a 6-foot-7 pitcher with an upper-90s fastball would generate some strikeouts. But his four-seamer is probably his worst pitch. There's a lot more to pitching in the major leagues than throwing hard, as Painter is finding out the hard way. His heater has a 5.2% swinging-strike rate, a pathetically low number for a pitch of that variety.
It's a "flat" pitch that the Stuff+ models hate, and those models are clearly onto something. Big leaguers aren't having any trouble with it.
He's going to be forced to move away from that pitch. The good news for him is that he throws six other pitch types. We saw this last time out, as he threw the four-seamer just 24% of the time, by far his lowest usage rate of the season. And it worked in that instance, as he went five innings against the Red Sox while allowing just one run.
But what you're likely to get from more sweepers and sliders is more balls and less efficiency. And if he falls behind in counts, he'll have no choice but to go back to that fastball.
So that's a lot about Painter. I think he can survive in the majors as he tweaks some things and utilizes his secondary pitches more often, but I'm still in “bet against Painter” mode for now.
On the other side is Nick Lodolo, who had a delayed start to the year because of a blister issue. He's been greeted back to the big leagues quite rudely, giving up nine earned runs in two starts against the Astros and Nationals.
The good news is that we never expect anybody to come out of the chute looking like their normal self after an injury, especially early in the season when pitchers are still trying to find their rhythm. I like betting on good pitchers in their third or fourth start back from injury.
The good news for Lodolo is that he's throwing strikes at a decent rate (35% Ball%) and generating whiffs (12.7% SwStr%). We should see Lodolo return to form soon, and I'd like to back him as an underdog in this spot to get ahead of the correction.
Pick: Reds Moneyline (+105 , DraftKings)
Reds vs Phillies Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park |
| Date: | Monday, May 18 |
| Time: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | NBC Sports Philadelphia; Reds TV; MLB.TV |
