The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Chicago White Sox on July 19, 2025. First pitch from PNC Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT and MLB.TV.
Yesterday, the White Sox won, 10-1, in the opener of this 3-game series and will give the ball to Adrian Houser today. Mike Burrows will be the starter for the Pirates.
Find my White Sox vs Pirates prediction and MLB betting preview below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
White Sox vs Pirates Prediction
- White Sox vs. Pirates Picks: Pirates F5 Team Total Under 2.5 (-160 · DraftKings)
My Pirates vs. White Sox best bet is for Pittsburgh to go under its F5 team total. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
White Sox vs Pirates Odds
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -182 | 8.5 -103o / -118u | +112 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +149 | 8.5 -103o / -118u | -137 |
White Sox vs Pirates Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Adrian Houser (CHW) | Stat | RHP Mike Burrows (PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | W-L | 1-3 |
| 1.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 1.56 / 3.68 | ERA / xERA | 4.83 / 4.55 |
| 3.12 / 4.04 | FIP / xFIP | 5.03 / 4.28 |
| 1.13 | WHIP | 1.46 |
| 9.3 | K-BB% | 13.7 |
| 47.6 | GB% | 36.7 |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 91 |
| 103 | Location+ | 98 |
White Sox vs Pirates Preview, Betting Analysis, Prediction
Adrian Houser looks like a different pitcher this season. He's been phenomenal over nine outings with the White Sox, posting a 1.56 ERA and eight quality starts.
The ERA estimators aren't as outstanding, but they're still solid, and there are tangible changes to explain Houser's production.
The 32-year-old has unearthed a new level of velocity, averaging 95 MPH on his heater for the first time in his career. He's also dropped his arm slot to a career-low 37 degrees.
Houser remains a sinker-first pitcher. The sinker is also up in velocity, and the adjusted arm slot has added some arm-side run to the pitch, posting a tremendous +11 run value so far, just behind Framber Valdez and ahead of Tarik Skubal and Logan Webb in terms of sinker run value among starters. That's pretty good company.
Houser's sinker has helped him limit right-handed hitters to a measly .186/.231/.216 slash line.
Pittsburgh ranks dead last in wRC+ and 29th in OPS and wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past 30 days of game action. The Pirates are also last in first-five innings scoring on the season. Tonight's projected lineup includes just three left-handed hitters, which is a big bump for Houser.
Houser's earned runs prop is certainly in play here at under 2.5 (-120). My concern is how deeply he's working into games. Houser has gone seven-plus innings in three straight starts. He's completed six innings in all but one outing.
You might be stuck sweating an extra two innings on his ERs prop. The juice is heavy on the first five innings line, but I prefer to pay the price to chop off a couple of innings.
Pick: Pirates F5 Team Total Under 2.5 (-160 · DraftKings)
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