The Boston Red Sox (11-10) host the Chicago White Sox (4-15) on Saturday, April 19. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on NESN.
The White Sox have lost four straight games and will look to end the streak against a former friend — Garrett Crochet. The Red Sox acquired the flamethrower from the White Sox before Spring Training, and he dominated the White Sox in his last outing. Opposing Crochet is Shane Smith, who grew up not far from Fenway Park.
Find my White Sox vs Red Sox prediction and pick for Saturday below.
White Sox vs Red Sox Prediction Today
- White Sox vs Red Sox pick: Red Sox -2.5 (+105 at BetMGM; play to -115)
My White Sox vs Red Sox best bet is: Red Sox -2.5 (play to -115). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox Odds, Spreads
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +136 | 9 -120o / -102u | +280 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -164 | 9 -120o / -102u | -350 |
White Sox vs Red Sox Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Shane Smith (CWS) | Stat | LHP Garrett Crochet (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | W-L | 2-1 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 2.04 / 3.90 | ERA /xERA | 1.38 / 2.83 |
| 3.00 / 4.22 | FIP / xFIP | 2.27 / 3.20 |
| 0.91 | WHIP | 0.88 |
| 7.4% | K-BB% | 20.2% |
| 52.1% | GB% | 44.3% |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 113 |
| 101 | Location+ | 94 |
Sean Paul’s White Sox vs Red Sox Preview
White Sox Betting Preview
A native of Danvers, Mass., Shane Smith will look to keep his emotions at bay, pitching about 30 minutes from his hometown. The rookie pitcher is a ground-ball maven, recording 52% of his outs via the grounder. That puts him in the 78th percentile in GB% and matches it with a 79th percentile marker in barrel rate.
The Red Sox tattooed Smith last week, hitting seven balls at least 100 mph. If Smith gets hit that hard again, I can’t imagine he cruises through six innings with just two runs.
There's no sugarcoating how awful this White Sox offense is. They have the third-lowest wRC+ (66) in MLB. The Chicago offense lacks a true go-to option.
The guy was supposed to be Luis Robert Jr., but the club's dreadful atmosphere appears to have rubbed off on the franchise centerpiece, as he owns a .136 average and a 32 wRC+. The best qualified hitter on the roster is Lenyn Sosa, who has a 104 wRC+.
If you want an idea of how poor the White Sox offense is, five of the nine hitters in Friday's lineup are hitting below .200. And that's without Robert, who didn't play.
The good news? Andrew Benintendi is back and he hit a homer in the park he used to call home. He's the best hitter on Chicago's roster with a 122 wRC+, but since he missed 10 days with an injury, he doesn't have enough ABs to qualify.
The White Sox snagged a pair of wins on the South Side of Chicago last week versus the Red Sox. The only game Boston won was this matchup with Crochet versus Smith and Boston still scored just three runs.
Red Sox Betting Preview
The prize of Boston's offseason was Garret Crochet, who I deem the best pitcher in baseball. I don’t think that’s even a hot take.
Sometimes, joining a bigger market squad can shell-shock a player. That’s not the case for Crochet, who owns a 1.38 ERA and a 2.27 FIP in four starts in Boston.
The best part? Crochet is a shoo-in to pitch six-plus innings every game and manager Alex Cora has lengthened the leash on his ace since he signed a long-term deal.
Crochet boasts an exceptional 113 Stuff+, which speaks to his dominance. The one interesting note about Crochet is his 9.6 K/9, which is down from 12.8 last year.
He struck out 11 White Sox in his last outing and made a concerted effort to strike more batters out. It'll only be a matter of time until Crochet's K/9 creeps into the double-digits.
The Red Sox offense finally woke up in game one of the White Sox series, scoring 10 runs on 11 hits. Playing the worst team in baseball helps, but I'm buying all the stock in Boston's bats.
Coming into this series, the Red Sox had a 99 wRC+, ranking 17th in MLB with a jarring 25.5% K rate.
Rafael Devers is the culprit for the Red Sox offensive woes. He started the year 0-for-21 and is hitting .231 with one homer.
However, Devers ranks in the 96th percentile in average exit velocity and 92nd in hard-hit rate. It's only a matter of time until Devers erupts, in turn, leading Boston's offense to larger heights. Devers facing a righty who doesn't miss bats like Smith, is an ideal matchup for the slugger.
The Red Sox scored seven-plus runs in two of their last three games. While expecting that many runs every game is unrealistic, hammering this White Sox pitching staff for another lopsided scoring game is very possible.
White Sox vs Red Sox Prediction, Betting Analysis
Seldom are moneylines in MLB juiced near or around the -300 mark.
That's the case here — the Red Sox sit as -325 favorites and the only real option with value is betting on Boston -2.5 at -102 odds.
In most cases, I can't recommend betting on a team to win by three runs. This case is an exception, as Crochet is one of baseball's best pitchers with a stout lineup to tally runs.
The pitching matchup favors Boston and it could easily score double-digit runs again.
Give me the Red Sox at home -2.5
Pick: Red Sox -2.5 (play to -115)
Moneyline
I'm not be betting on either side of the moneyline for this matchup.
Run Line (Spread)
As I mentioned above, the best bet here is on the Red Sox to cover the spread.
Over/Under
I'm also staying away from game totals.
White Sox vs Red Sox Betting Trends
Red Sox vs White Sox Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Fenway Park in Boston, Mass. |
| Date: | Saturday, April 19 |
| Time: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | NESN, CHSN; MLB.TV |
