Tuesday marks another Skenes Day in baseball, as the indomitable right-hander takes the ball against a St. Louis team he blanked across 6 1/3 innings earlier this year.
That game saw Miles Mikolas match Skenes' brilliance for the Cardinals, though it ultimately ended in a 2-1 Pirates victory. With the volatile Lance Lynn now taking the ball opposite Skenes, the story could be a bit different on Tuesday.
Let's try to figure out the story of this one and craft a Cardinals vs. Pirates same-game parlay on Tuesday, July 23.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Cardinals vs Pirates SGP Picks (July 23)
- Pirates ML (-185)
- Paul Skenes Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (-140)
- Rowdy Tellez 2+ Total Bases (+175)
Parlay Odds: +475 (DraftKings)
Pittsburgh Pirates
Moneyline -185
The Pirates are shockingly strong favorites in this one — even for a Skenes start — and it's with good reason.
This team is hitting .261 in the month of July, bringing its wRC+ to 108. While the gaudy power numbers that were present a few weeks ago have dissipated a bit, the Buccos are still sporting a .167 isolated power (ISO) that will do just fine.
Lynn was rocked the last time he faced the Pirates, yielding seven base-runners and three runs over 4 1/3 innings back in mid-June, and there's little to suggest anything will be different this time around.
In fact, the Pirates struck out five times against Lynn, which was quite indicative of the way they were running at the dish last month with a brutal 25.4% strikeout rate.
They're punching out 19.3% only of the time in July, and while that's due to more swings and fewer walks, it should be a winning strategy against Lynn given his problems with the long-ball and his boisterous .405 xwOBA on contact.
The Cardinals are hitting just .209 against power pitchers like Skenes this year and will be receiving a park downgrade in Pittsburgh, which is one of few parks that's even more unfriendly to fly-balls.
I don't have many doubts about Skenes' ability to work through this one in clean fashion. On the flip side, I think this Pirates team is still running hot enough to believe in here.
Paul Skenes
Under 1.5 Walks Allowed
Skenes has walked more than one batter just twice in 11 outings this year, and now he'll encounter a Cardinals team that ranks 23rd in walk rate this year at 7.3%. That number has fallen to nearly 6% since the start of June, as the team's swung at more than 48% of the pitches it's seen.
The right-hander has an excellent command of the strike zone and shouldn't be working into many deep counts against a team that's offering at so many pitches. Plus, they know the flamethrower gets even more dangerous when he moves ahead in counts.
Skenes didn't issue a walk over his 6 1/3 innings against St. Louis last go-around, so I'm a bit surprised to see the line set at 1.5 walks. Snag this under.
Rowdy Tellez
2+ Total Bases (+175)
Finally, after much deliberation, it'll be Rowdy Tellez that I back from this Pirates lineup.
I gave some thought to backing Jack Suwinski to get a hit and considered Bryan Reynolds here as well.
However, Suwinski's still been far too volatile to believe in here, and Reynolds' price is a bit out of reach. Tellez, meanwhile, should probably be priced a little differently on his total bases line.
He has three hits in nine at-bats against Lynn in his career but carries with him a .493 xSLG in these ABs. That should be all we need to hear considering Tellez has been one of the hottest hitters in the Pirates' order, rocking a 144 wRC+ in July behind a .313 average and team-high .604 slugging percentage.
Tellez was the lone man to shine in Monday's 2-1 win, picking up two hits, including a double. He should stay hot on Tuesday against a pitcher who's terrible at pitching to contact.
Most crucially here, Tellez is putting a ton of balls into play with a low 14.5% strikeout rate this month, and he isn't walking much. We should have a few good chances for him to at least rack up an extra-base hit if he doesn't record multiple knocks.
