Brewers vs Phillies Odds & Pick
| Milwaukee Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+170 | 8 -110o / -110u | +1.5 -115 |
| Philadelphia Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-210 | 8 -110o / -110u | -1.5 -105 |
Brewers vs Phillies odds have the Phillies as -210 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8 (-110o/ -110u) for the Monday series opener at Citizens Bank Park.
A pair of right-handers are set to square off with Bryse Wilson taking on Zack Wheeler.
For my Brewers vs Phillies prediction, I will be looking at the run line.
Editor's Note: The Brewers will open the game with left-handed reliever Jared Koenig. Wilson will follow in a bulk role.
Milwaukee Brewers
Wilson has been strong on the mound thus far this season, posting a 3-1 record with a 3.19 ERA and 1.23 WHIP while bouncing between the rotation and bullpen.
However, his underlying metrics suggest that regression is looming.
The right-hander currently ranks in the 29th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. We've seen that regression already start to kick in recently, given that Wilson possesses a 4.50 ERA and 1.72 WHIP over his past four outings.
This downturn is likely to continue against Philadelphia, a team Wilson possesses a fade-worthy 7.15 ERA and 2.03 WHIP against through four career meetings.
Speaking of regression, Milwaukee's bullpen is also due for it. The Brewers' relief pitching ranks in the bottom half of the league this year in FIP despite ranking sixth in ERA.
While Milwaukee's lineup is one of baseball's best, it's probably going to be in for a tough outing against a guy of Wheeler's caliber. This current Brewers lineup possesses a mere .226 BA, .321 SLG and .255 wOBA through 88 combined career plate appearances against the right-hander.
Philadelphia Phillies
Simply put, Wheeler is one of (if not) the best pitchers in baseball. He's 6-3 with a 2.32 ERA and 0.95 WHIP this season.
Wheeler has been particularly dialed in recently, posting a 2-0 record with a 1.77 ERA and 0.84 WHIP over his past three starts.
Analytically speaking, regression is unlikely given that he ranks in the 92nd percentile in xERA and 93rd in xBA.
While the Brewers are an extremely good team at the dish, Wheeler can handle it, as he's 3-2 against them through nine career meetings with a 2.68 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Following Wheeler is of the best bullpens in baseball.
The Phillies' relief staff currently rank in the top 10 of the league in ERA, FIP and xFIP.
Brewers vs. Phillies
Betting Pick & Prediction
That pitching staff should also receive plenty of run support, given that Philadelphia ranks in the top six of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.
I would argue that Milwaukee's lineup has been even better, but the gap between the lineups is smaller than the gap between the pitching.
Wilson started the year solidly, but his production is dipping, and the analytics suggest that we should expect that trend to continue.
Meanwhile, we know what we're going to get from Wheeler, who's one of the best pitchers in the world.
I also trust Philly's bullpen more.
Add in home field, and I believe the best value in the betting market for this game is the Phillies' run line at +100.
