The Milwaukee Brewers seem to be back on track as they've won four of their past six games, widening their National League Central lead to 7 1/2 games entering Thursday. Now, they'll attempt to take the soul of the struggling Padres, who have fallen nine games back of the Dodgers in the NL West after dropping five of six.
With two worrisome starters on the hill, what's the best way to attack Brewers vs Padres? Let's piece together a same-game parlay to end Thursday on the right foot.
Read below for my Brewers vs Padres Same Game Parlay(June 20).
Brewers vs Padres Same Game Parlay Picks
- Padres Moneyline (-112)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. 2+ Total Bases (-105)
- Christian Yelich To Record A Stolen Base (+200)
Parlay Odds: +927 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Padres Moneyline (-112)
Brewers vs. Padres | 9:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
It's hard to trust either of these pitchers, but I'm having a far easier time seeing a way through this one for Adam Mazur than Bryse Wilson.
Mazur's had a rough go of it since his promotion to the big leagues earlier this month, but his issues are pretty easy to pin on walks. He's issued 13 free passes in 12 2/3 innings, and while he's also allowed 13 hits, he's allowed a perfectly average number of expected hits and just one home run.
Now, I can't tell you exactly what's going on, but it could just be that Mazur's got some early jitters. He showcased expert control in the minors, owning a walk rate under 5%, and his abilities to limit home runs and produce a decent number of strikeouts at the major-league level is something we also saw throughout his stay in the minors.
San Diego may be sliding backward a bit, but has still looked fantastic at the plate recently with few strikeouts and a wealth of power. Wilson owns a poor .261 xBA and .437 xSLG and has pitched to a ton of walks and few strikeouts, which should suit San Diego's patient and dangerous lineup.
Fernando Tatis Jr. 2+ Total Bases (-105)
Brewers vs. Padres | 9:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
The Padres own the second-best batting average against finesse pitchers this season, and there's been no better hitter versus contact-oriented arms on this team than Tatis. He ranks fourth in the league in total bases versus these pitchers with a spicy .974 OPS and while he's cooled off over the past eight games, he's still slashing a whopping .338/.400/.588 in June.
Tatis has also destroyed sinkers this season to the tune of a .355 xBA and owns a .495 xSLG against cut-fastballs. The sample is still somewhat small through just a few months, but he posted similarly impressive numbers last season, which should make him a weapon for the Padres on Thursday against a pitcher who utilizes these two offerings almost two thirds of the time.
Christian Yelich To Record A Stolen Base (+200)
Brewers vs. Padres | 9:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Finally, we'll take this parlay to the stratosphere with a +200 bet that will boost the odds significantly.
I really love Yelich to steal a base here as he's been running a ton more and has a steal in seven of his past 12 games. He's also gotten on base at a .440 clip over the past two weeks and because we saw Kyle Higashioka catch on Wednesday, we're almost certain to see Luis Campusano behind the plate for San Diego today.
Campusano has caught just one of 24 baserunners attempting to swipe second base this year (57th of 62 catchers in caught-stealing rate) and is last in Caught Stealing Above Average (-5), according to Statcast. This should be a dream spot for the Brewers to get running, and while there are more proficient base-stealers to target, I like Yelich the most here given his increasing aggression on the bases and consistent work in getting on base.
