Brewers vs. Orioles Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +158 | 8.5 -112o / -108u | -108 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -192 | 8.5 -112o / -108u | -108 |
You might not think of Brewers vs. Orioles as an exciting series, but there will be storylines aplenty during this weekend’s three-game series.
Friday night will mark the home debut for baseball’s top-ranked prospect, Jackson Holliday. The young phenom is still looking for his first major league hit and will look to do it in front of the hometown fans.
Then on Saturday, former Orioles first-round pick DL Hall will get the start for Milwaukee and make his return to Baltimore after he was traded in February’s blockbuster deal. Sunday will feature the headliner of that trade as Corbin Burnes gets the start for the Orioles against his former club.
But for now, we are just focused on Friday’s matchup. Let's dig into the MLB odds and make a Brewers vs. Orioles pick.
Milwaukee Brewers
With Thursday’s rainout, Freddy Peralta will make the start Friday. Peralta enters the weekend with the third-lowest odds for the NL Cy Young Award. He has racked up 15 strikeouts in his first two starts, allowing four runs on five hits.
The artist formerly known as “Fastball Freddy” relies much less on his four-seamer than in the past and has developed a strong slider that has yet to yield a hit. He was one of the best pitchers in the game down the stretch, tossing a 2.81 ERA after the All-Star break.
Peralta is elite at generating swing and misses. He had an 11.41 K/9 rate last season and sits in the top 10% of the league in strikeout and Whiff rates. If Peralta has any weakness, he allows too many barrels. Regardless, he has cemented himself as one of the game’s best arms.
Pitching is usually expected to carry this Milwaukee team, but their offense has gotten off to a much better start than many expected. The Brew Crew are averaging 5.9 runs per game and have clubbed the fifth-most home runs in the league. They are also noticeably stealing a lot more bases in their first season under Pat Murphy.
Brice Turang leads the majors with seven stolen bases and is batting .342 to begin his sophomore season. Christian Yelich looks like he has turned back the clock, smacking five home runs through his first 10 games.
Baltimore Orioles
Tyler Wells is coming off a breakout season in 2023, when he posted a 3.64 ERA through 25 outings. He was brilliant in the first half of the season, pitching to a 7-4 record and 3.18 ERA over 17 starts but he really ran out of gas and had issues down the stretch.
Baltimore needs to get the Wells it saw in the first half to help withstand the Kyle Bradish injury. However, through two starts, Wells has allowed six earned runs through 11 1/3 innings.
Wells has solid command but allowed an alarming 11.7% barrel rate last season, one of the worst in the league. He has already allowed four barrels this season, resulting in a pair of home runs.
The future is bright in Baltimore with the game’s top-rated prospect pool, led by the 20-year-old Holliday. He joins 22-year-old Gunnar Henderson, 24-year-old Colton Cowser, 25-year-old Jordan Westburg and 26-year-old Adley Rutschman. Top prospects Coby Mayo, Heston Kjerstad and Connor Norby are likely not far behind.
Whole Henderson, Rutschman and now Holliday get all the headlines, Cowser is hitting .458 with a 1.379 OPS. He hit his first MLB home run Thursday night against the Red Sox and then hit his second later that game in the 10th inning to blow the score open and give the Orioles the win in extra innings.
Colton Cowser hit his first big league homer earlier tonight
His second just gave the Orioles a six-run lead in the 10th pic.twitter.com/F9CxTAoKqA
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) April 12, 2024
Brewers vs. Orioles
Betting Pick & Prediction
There is no doubt Camden Yards will have a special energy Friday with fans excited to see Holliday. But Peralta is one of the best pitchers in the game and an NL Cy Young Award candidate.
He has elite stuff and had the fourth-highest K/9 rate in the league last season. Fastball Freddy might not throw his four-seamer over 77% of the time as he did earlier in his career, but he still throws it 55% of the time and it ranked as the 14th-best fastball in the league last season. Baltimore ranks 28th against fastballs and their top bats have struggled against the pitch. Behind Peralta is a terrific bullpen that will be at full strength following a day off Thursday.
Baltimore has an elite bullpen too, but Jacob Webb, Danny Coulombe, Mike Baumann, Yennier Canó and Craig Kimbrel all pitched in an extra-inning game Thursday night. Wells struggled down the stretch of last season and was optioned to the minors and sent to the bullpen. He has started the season with some concerns, continuing to allow a troubling barrel rate. Wells has an xERA of 6.52 through his first two starts.
As talented and fun as the Orioles' lineup is, the Brewers are hitting the ball better right now. Milwaukee sits top five in wOBA and wRC+ and they have been especially good against right-handed pitching, sitting second in the league with a .364 wOBA.
Frankly, I was a bit surprised when this line opened with Milwaukee as the underdog at even money. The Brewers are already 5-1 as an underdog this season and always seem to be underrated in the market. This team is playing really well right now and I’ll back the Brew Crew to keep it going here.
Pick: Brewers ML +100 (Play to -118)
