Brewers vs. Cubs Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -148 | 7.5 -102 / -120 | -1.5 +114 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+126 | 7.5 -102 / -120 | +1.5 -137 |
MLB Opening Day is finally upon us! To kick things off in the Windy City, there is an NL Central Division series set to begin with the Chicago Cubs hosting the Milwaukee Brewers.
Milwaukee ended last season's series between these two clubs in good form, winning three of the past four matchups.
Here's a look at the odds, as well as my Brewers vs. Cubs betting pick.
Milwaukee Brewers
Drawing his second consecutive Opening Day start, right-hander Corbin Burnes is slated to take the mound for Milwaukee. After taking home the NL Cy Young in 2021, Burnes followed up with another monster season in 2022.
In 33 starts, Burnes went 12-8 with a 2.94 ERA and 0.97 WHIP while amassing a whopping 243 strikeouts. The punch-out is Burnes' most devastating attribute as a pitcher, which is the prop we are going to target on Opening Day.
At BetRivers, you can find Burnes Over 6.5 strikeouts at -152, a play where I believe the juice is worth the squeeze. Last season, he ranked in the 87th percentile (or higher) in K%, Whiff%, Chase Rate, Fastball Spin, and Curve Spin.
Additionally, Burnes enters this year with an extra chip on his shoulder. The big news surrounding the Brewers' ace this off-season was their terrible contract negotiations, which shed a bad light on a notoriously cheap Milwaukee organization and is going to perhaps fuel a (rightfully) pissed off Burnes.
Chicago Cubs
The offseason news surrounding Chicago was much more inspiring, in part because of its flurry of acquisitions. Boasting a completely revamped lineup, the Cubs brought in Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger, Trey Mancini and Eric Hosmer.
However, outside of Hosmer, those guys are only going to further Chicago's strikeout problem. In 2022, the Cubs ranked 22nd in the league in K% when facing right-handed pitching.
Last season, Swanson, Bellinger and Mancini all possessed a K% north of 23%. In fact, looking at the projected Opening Day lineup, seven of the nine hitters posted a K% north of that figure last season.
Brewers vs. Cubs Betting Pick
Chicago's woes in the strikeout department are likely to continue against the efficient Burnes. Across 111 career plate appearances against the right-hander, this current Cubs roster possesses a staggering 31.5 K% and 40.3 Whiff%.
That is absolutely dominating stuff, which is why Burnes is 2-1 with a 1.85 ERA and 60 strikeouts over his last six games against Chicago. He accumulated 10 or more strikeouts in five of those six outings, which is far greater than the number we are taking on Opening Day.
It makes sense why the total is set lower in this specific instance. It is the first day of the new season, and with 162 games, it is a marathon, not a sprint.
I do not expect Burnes to go out for more than five innings, but that is likely all it will take to get to seven strikeouts against a lineup that is projected to start seven guys who had a K% north of 23% last season.
