The NL Central race is all but settled with the Milwaukee Brewers growing their lead over the second-place St. Louis Cardinals by the day. We'll see if the Brewers can put the nail in the coffin by making the lead nine games with a win on Wednesday.
I crafted a same game parlay for the St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers game, which begins at 7:45 p.m. ET on Wednesday, August 21.
Sean Paul's Brewers vs Cardinals MLB Parlay Picks for Wednesday
- Brewers ML (-110)
- Alec Burleson 2+ Total Bases (+100)
- Brice Turang to Record a Hit (-275)
Parlay Odds: +425 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Brewers ML
The Brewers' offense felt doomed once Christian Yelich suffered a season-ending injury.
That hasn't been the case, though.
Milwaukee's offense hasn't just been good — it's been well above league average in August, posting a 115 wRC+. The Brewers' offense walks 9.4% of the time, the sixth-highest in baseball this month.
Conversely, the Brewers swing and miss too much, striking out 24.8% of the time in August (10th-highest in baseball).
William Contreras is arguably the best-hitting catcher in the MLB, and he's continued his success in August. He owns a team-best 192 wRC+ with six homers in the past three weeks.
Two other Brewers hitters joins Contreras in the above 140 wRC+ club — Willy Adames and rookie phenom Jackson Chourio.
So, why back the Brewers? I'm looking to fade a very fadeable pitcher in Cardinals veteran righty Kyle Gibson. The 36-year-old starter enters this start with a 4.26 ERA with a fairly close 4.31 FIP.
The biggest problem for Gibson is his lack of command as he's walking a career-high 3.44 batters per nine.
The Brewers will gladly take pitches if Gibson can't fill up the zone.
Tobias Myers has filled a huge role for Milwaukee when it needed him most. The rookie pitcher has been lightning in a bottle for the NL Central leaders, posting a 2.81 ERA with a 4.09 FIP. He's due for some regression but he's better than Gibson, even with regression based on his FIP.
Plus, the Brewers' bullpen is finally whole with Devin Williams and Trevor Megill both healthy. Megill served as the closer while Williams rehabbed his long-term injury, and both being back gives the Brewers one of the best eighth/ninth inning duos in baseball.
Alec Burleson 2+ Total Bases
Burleson is well on his way to developing into the Cardinals' version of Joc Pederson. That means Burleson is a straight platoon bat who provides almost zero defensive value but punishes right-handed pitching.
Burleson leads the Cardinals with a 142 wRC+ versus righties and a dynamite .873 OPS.
In addition, most of Burleson’s power comes from his strong platoon side. He has 18 of his 21 homers against righties. That's perfect for the total bases prop, since one homer or double is an instant win for the bet.
Burleson has been very hot lately, hitting .320 in his past seven games with an OPS north of .860. He's borderline unplayable against southpaws, posting a .203 average and .516 OPS against them. If he played just against righties, he'd be a much more valuable hitter.
I’m more than happy to back Burleson against right-handed pitching, which gives us a great opportunity to enhance the parlay odds by mixing Cardinals and Brewers props.
Brice Turang to Record a Hit
For the final leg of the SGP, I wanted to find something that's juiced up a bit — but something that can still net you 400+ odds.
That made Brice Turang recording a hit the ideal final puzzle piece.
Turang is the Brewers' lead-off hitter after a brief spell hitting down in the lineup. Since he's the lead-off hitter, he'll have no shortage of chances to record a knock.
Turang has been performing well recently, collecting hits in five of his past six games — and multi hits in two of the six.
The thing I love about Turang here is he's 7-for-22 in his past seven games with just four strikeouts. He rarely punches out, and he's one of the 10 fastest players in the sport, so making contact could lead to a hit even if it's not struck hard.
Add Turang to get a hit at -275 as the cherry on top of the SGP.
