Editor's note: The Braves announced Friday morning that Spencer Strider would start today.
Braves vs. Phillies Game 3 Odds
| Braves Odds | -104 |
| Phillies Odds | -112 |
| Over/Under | 6.5 |
| Time | 4:37 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The Atlanta Braves have hesitated to release information on a starting pitcher for Friday’s matchup with the Phillies in Philadelphia. Charlie Morton and Spencer Strider are both options. Obviously, Strider is the better of the two options, but Morton has a ton of playoff experience. On the other side of the diamond, Aaron Nola will take the bump for the Phillies.
Strider is the front-runner for National LeagueRookie of the Year Award with a 2.67 ERA and an even better 2.39 xERA. However, he does rank in the 66th and 67th percentiles in Average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate, which is a tick lower than his other peripherals.
Morton is definitely worse with a 4.34 ERA and a 4.11 xERA. He ranks in the 28th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the 17th percentile in Hard-Hit Rate. Morton fared better in the second half than the first, but Strider is the more reliable option, even if he is a rookie.
Nola posted a 3.25 ERA and a 2.74 xERA in the regular season. He ranked in the 69th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the 92nd percentile in Hard-Hit Rate, so he is clearly better at preventing hard contact.
The kicker in this game is both bullpens have shown their cards and hover around league average. With both teams hitting right handers at an above-average clip, taking the over in this game is the right call, regardless of whether Strider or Morton starts.
Atlanta Braves: Who Will Start?
Strider has a tendency to walk hitters (8.5%) and Morton is in the same vein at 8.7%, so neither option will shy away from issuing free passes. Strider strikes out batters with the best of them and Morton has a nasty curveball. The Phillies do struggle with hitting curves from right-handers, so that could play into this matchup.
Either way, the Phillies have six hitters with a xwOBA above .325 off of righties since August 1. They have a team 107 wRC+ and a .744 OPS, as well. Against lefties, those numbers improve to 123 and .798. The Phillies have enough artillery to battle with the best of Atlanta's pitching staff.
The Braves have a bullpen xFIP of 3.85 with a 78.2% LOB percentage. The latter number is elite, but they only have three arms with an xFIP below 3.00. Morton didn't even make it four innings in his past two starts, while Strider is coming off of an injury. Since both have a tendency to walk batters, the pitch count will slowly increase — an advantage for the Phillies as the game progresses.
Philadelphia Phillies: Can Nola Silence Braves' Bats?
Nola’s 2022 campaign flew under the radar a bit. He had a 3.6% walk rate and improved his Average Exit Velocity a full 1.2 mph, giving him his best mark since 2018. Since he also strikes out batters with the best of them, Atlanta will have its hands full.
That said, Atlanta does have a 114 wRC+ and a .775 OPS against righties since August 1. The Braves numbers against lefties were 115 and .771, so not much changes with the handedness of the pitcher. The Braves also have six batters with a xwOBA over .325 and Dansby Swanson comes in at .322. The Braves should cause some trouble for Nola, as long as they are ready to swing.
The Phillies' bullpen is abysmal when it comes to stranding runners. They nearly blew their Game 1 lead in Atlanta and ranked 26th in LOB percentage since August 1. Atlanta might push a few runs across late as the Braves have already seen the best Philadelphia has to offer in relief.
Braves-Phillies Pick
Take the over in this game, regardless of the Atlanta starting pitcher. Both teams have solid bats throughout the lineup against right-handed pitching and both bullpens are amongst the worst of the teams left in the playoffs. Take the over from 7 (-114), and play it to 7.5 (-130) with Strider pitching for Atlanta. Take it to 8 (-110) with Morton pitching.
Pick: Over 7 (-114) | play to 7.5 (-130) for Strider and 8 (-110) for Morton
