Braves vs Phillies Odds
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -104 | 8 -122 / +100 | -1.5 +150 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-112 | 8 -122 / +100 | +1.5 -182 |
Bryce Elder has been a serviceable and impressive young starter for the Atlanta Braves, but he's due for some negative regression and it's already starting to hit. He's allowed 10 earned runs over his past three starts and is now tasked with facing a Philadelphia Phillies lineup that is starting to turn it on and looks like the team that made a World Series run in 2022.
Aaron Nola will start for the Phillies and although he has strong peripherals, the results just aren't there yet.
Given that these starters have a tendency to allow baserunners, the over should be in play.
Atlanta Braves
Elder has a 2.60 ERA against a 3.91 xERA, which is solid, but he allows hard contact. He owns a 90.3 mph Average Exit Velocity and a 44.4% Hard-Hit Rate. Those both rank in the 25th percentile or lower, which is concerning. He also only strikes out batters at a 20.7% rate, so he may not be able to exploit an area in which the Phillies have struggled.
The Braves can hit, however. On the season, they have nine active hitters with an xwOBA over .320, including three hitters above .400, against righties. This lineup has no holes. In fact, the Braves have an MLB-best 150 wRC+ with a 17.8% strikeout rate, a 10% walk rate and a .937 OPS in June.
In relief, the Braves have been great lately. They have a 3.24 xFIP, but a 87.2% LOB percentage, which will eventually come down. If Elder has to exit the game early, Atlanta's middle relievers could yield some runs.
Philadelphia Phillies
Aaron Nola owns a 4.66 ERA against a 3.65 xERA. Things will eventually improve for the Phillies starter, but Thursday may not be that day because Atlanta can crush righties. His xSLG ranks in the middle of the pack, which won't get the job done against one of the best offenses in the league. He may be able to limit walks, but otherwise, expect his outing to have a similar result to his most recent start against the Braves (five earned in six innings).
The Phillies finally look like they did to round out last year. They have a 9.2% walk rate, a .787 OPS and a 112 wRC+ off of right-handers in June. They also have five hitters with a xwOBA over .340 against righties this month. The top of the order should take advantage of Elder’s slide to normalcy.
In relief, Philadelphia has been better lately. The Phillies have a 3.88 xFIP this month, but a 74% LOB percentage could mean some of those runners may end up crossing the plate.
Braves vs Phillies Betting Pick
Overall, these offenses are really hitting their stride.
Both bullpens have been sharp lately, but the starters could give up runs early. Elder has allowed plenty of hard contact, and Nola has shown he can't work his way around the Braves' lineup.
Atlanta and Philadelphia have shown a ton of power, especially at the top of the batting order. Ronald Acuña Jr., Kyle Schwarber, Matt Olson and Nick Castellanos should have solid days at the plate. Take the over from 9 (-120), and play it to 9.5 (-125).
Pick: Over 9 | Play to 9.5 |
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