The San Diego Padres and Atlanta Braves meet for the second game of the penultimate series of the first half of the season. A pair of All-Star caliber pitchers — and former teammates, Dylan Cease and Reynaldo Lopez, face off for the second time this year.
The Braves cruised to a 6-1 win in the first game of the series. Let’s see if we can grab a Braves vs Padres SGP victory for game two.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Braves vs Padres MLB Parlay: Saturday SGP Picks
- Padres ML (-110)
- Reynaldo Lopez Under 1.5 walks (-145)
- Luis Arráez Over 1.5 total bases (+120)
Parlay Odds: +650 (DraftKings)
Padres ML (-110)
This pitching matchup features two pitchers on opposing ends of the analytical spectrum. Analytics have hinted at Braves starter Reynaldo Lopez regression for a few months, and he’s still humming as one of the best pitchers in baseball this year. We’re into mid July, just one start from the All-Star break, and Lopez has dominated opponents to the tune of a 1.71 ERA and a quickly dropping 3.10 FIP.
On the other hand, Padres ace Dylan Cease stats have fluctuated. He began the year on fire, but he’s faced three blowout outings where he allowed 5+ earned runs.
Typically, elite ace caliber pitchers won’t have that many blow up outings. However, Cease is among the best strikeout artists in baseball, posting an 11.3 K/9 with a promising 3.39 FIP compared to his 4.21 ERA.
Call me a sucker, but I’m fading Lopez again.
This matchup feels disastrous for the Braves scuffling offense that ranks 24th in MLB with a 93 wRC+ since June 20th. Atlanta’s bats tend to struggle against strikeout pitchers, like Cease, as they punched out in 25.8% of AB’s since July 20th.
Although offensive struggles loom large in the Padres recent five game losing skid, they still own a 122 wRC+ since July 20th.
The Padres offense features an old-school style approach. They strike out just 15% of the time since July 20th, and have struck out the fewest of any team this year, and walked on 5% of AB’s in that same span.
Highly polarizing star Manny Machado is one of the hottest hitters in the sport, posting a 163 wRC+ with six homers in his last 18 games. It couldn’t have been more timely, as Fernando Tatis Jr remains on the injured list.
Machado, along with strong hitting from lefties Jurickson Profar and Jackson Merrill should propel the Padres offense to a strong performance versus an All-Star pitcher.
Reynaldo Lopez U1.5 walks(-145)
Okay, for the last and final leg I’m going against a recent trend for Lopez, but it’s a matchup play. Walks are one of the few areas Lopez hasn’t excelled in during his breakout season, issuing 3.4 BB/9.
So, why am I am going under on the walk total? Well, as I detailed earlier, the Padres have zero interest in drawing long AB’s. They want to swing and make contact, not swing and miss or watch pitches. The true darlings of the pitch clock era.
Lopez walked just one batter in his earlier start against the Padres in 6.1 innings. I think we’ll see a similar outing, even if it’s not his best statistical outing.
Grabbing Lopez under 1.5 walks at +105 odds is a terrific value add to the same game parlay.
Luis Arráez Over 1.5 total bases (+120)
Sure, I’ll gladly back the best contact hitter in baseball to notch a pair of hits over López, who’s done nothing but dominate in their career. Arraez is batting .348 against his former division rivals dating to their Twins and White Sox days — and Arraez hadn’t fully morphed into the pesky hitter he is now.
Arraez is batting .241 in his past seven games, so he’ll need to turn his struggles around on Saturday. I trust Arraez more than a traditional struggling hitter due to his bat-to-ball archetype. Don’t get it twisted, I’m not some angry baseball fan who hates the modern game.
However, it feels like bat-to-ball hitters can bust slumps quicker than batters who strikeout often.
