Braves vs. Mets Odds, Pick
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-115 | 7.5 -105 / -115 | -1.5 +135 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-105 | 7.5 -105 / -115 | +1.5 -165 |
The Atlanta Braves were hoping to run Chris Sale out to the mound earlier this week to end their three-game losing streak, but after two days of rain, his start has been pushed to Thursday, when the team begins a big series against the New York Mets.
Atlanta dropped four straight to the Cardinals and Reds to finish out its homestand. It will now head back on the road to Citi Field, where it took two of three against the Mets in early May.
With this Mets team playing quite different baseball — and trotting out the effective Luis Severino to open up this four-game set — what can we expect to see on Thursday?
Let's examine the Braves vs. Mets odds and make a Braves vs. Mets pick below.
Atlanta Braves
It's been 11 long days since we last saw Sale pitch.
The lefty continued his wonderous campaign with five innings of one-run ball in San Diego to lower his ERA to 2.20 for June and 2.70 for the year. He did walk two batters, marking the third straight game he's done that, and matched his lowest strikeout output of the year with four. But given the Padres are a patient bunch, and he lasted five innings, it's hard to be up in arms about it.
Sale is now set to work in a much friendlier environment for pitchers than his home park in Atlanta, given Citi Field ranks 28th in Park Factor and 18th in Home Run Factor. That shouldn't make the most significant difference here, given Sale's return to prominence with a strikeout rate just shy of 30% and has pitched to a bevy of ground balls, but it can't hurt.
It's worth noting that this will be the first time that Sale's worked in Citi Field in his 14-year career other than the 2013 All-Star Game, where he tossed two scoreless innings.
The Braves' offense, meanwhile, hasn't enjoyed the month of July as much as Sale. They sit 27th in wRC+ over the past 25 days, with a 26.1% strikeout rate being their biggest detractor, leading to them hitting just .231. Their Isolated Power (ISO) stands at a respectable .180 as this fly-ball team has managed to find the seats 26 times over 18 games, but as we've seen in the past few seasons, this beastly offense is about more than power.
New York Mets
This Mets offense has found a groove in July.
They're third in wRC+, with a .256/.325/.444 slash line, clubbing 30 homers and posting a beefy .197 ISO during the month. Strikeouts are of slight concern here, as they've struck out in 23.5% of plate appearances in a near-three-point drop from their season average, and they continue to walk at a pedestrian 8.5% clip.
One thing to note here against Sale — a man who's pitched to ground balls at a 48.1% clip to mark his highest since 2011 — is that New York's been considerably worse against these types than against fly-ball arms. It's hitting just .246 in the split, compared to .244 in the reverse, but its OPS is 68 points lower. We usually see a dip in OPS with teams facing a ground-ball arm, but that almost always comes with a higher average. The Mets are just 16th in both categories to ground-ballers but sit in the top five against fly-ball pitchers, presenting a clear preference.
Speaking of ground balls, Severino has rolled 'em up at nearly the same clip as Sale this season in a similar revival, marking his best season there since 2017. It's helped bring his Expected Batting Average down from .286 a season ago to .240, and his hard-hit rate has fallen from 45% to 35.8%.
The Mets' infield ranks just 17th in Outs Above Average for the year, but they've managed to record four OAA this month to rank eighth, as Jose Iglesias has made his mark on this team in more ways than one. The Braves don't love hitting ground balls, but this should help Severino even more.
Braves vs. Mets
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Braves continue to put the ball in the air at a high clip, ranking 10th in fly-ball rate for the season at 38.5% and sixth this month at 41.1%.
This approach shouldn't be rewarded at a pitcher's park on Thursday.
That becomes particularly true with a ground-ball pitcher in Severino working, though Atlanta's oddly only been at its best against pitchers that find themselves right around the league average in terms of batted balls and ranks 19th against both fly-ballers and ground-ballers.
Sale, meanwhile, should pick on a Mets team that has been striking out at a concerning clip. With New York's lack of patience, those slight walk issues that have crept in over three July starts shouldn't be all too present.
We've got two power-reliant teams going against two pitchers who have limited longballs quite well — allowing a combined 19 in 225 2/3 innings — who now have the benefit of pitching at Citi Field which is near the bottom third of the league in home runs.
This is a pitcher's duel if I've ever seen one, and with some fair questions about both bullpens entering this one, I'll skip the full game here and go for the first five innings.
Pick: F5 Under 4 (-120, BetMGM)
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