Braves vs. Mets Odds
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -240 | 8.5 -110 / -110 | -1.5 -152 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+198 | 8.5 -110 / -110 | +1.5 +126 |
Let’s hope the third time’s the charm with the Braves and Mets!
It was a rainy weekend in Queens. Friday’s game was called final after five innings, and then Saturday and Sunday were both postponed. Atlanta and New York now hope to play a doubleheader on Monday, the first of the season for both teams.
These squads began the year as the frontrunners in the NL East, and that is right where they sit.
The Braves (18-9) have the second-best record in the National League, only behind the Pirates (20-9) … as we all expected. The Mets (15-12) have managed to overcome early injuries to remain right behind Atlanta in the division.
With two games on the docket as the calendar turns to May, let’s preview the Braves vs. Mets doubleheader set for Monday.
Atlanta Braves
Game 1 starter: Spencer Strider
National League Cy Young Award favorite Spencer Strider gets the ball in Game 1, and he has been brilliant in his second season.
It hasn't taken long for Strider to turn into arguably the best pitcher in baseball. After posting a 2.67 ERA in 20 starts as a rookie, he has been nearly unhittable this season.
Strider is 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA through five starts. His ERA is the fourth lowest in the league and his 14.7 K/9 tops all qualified pitchers. The remarkable thing about Strider is he does this with basically just two pitches. He throws a fastball over 97 mph with a devastating slider that generates a 52.9% whiff rate.
Game 2 starter: Charlie Morton
Game 2 will go to Mr. Reliable, Charlie Morton.
Morton has posted an ERA below 4.50 in eight of his last 10 seasons. Even at age 39, he has a 2.76 ERA through five starts. He has held opponents to two runs or fewer in four of his five starts.
The veteran right-hander does two things well — generates a strikeout or a ground ball. To the start of this season, he has a 20.2% strikeout rate. Lower than expected, but he racked up nine strikeouts in his last start.
He has a 49.4% ground-ball rate, which is right in line with his career average and up from last year. He generates ground balls at the 18th-highest rate in the league and he has one of the best curveballs in the game.
Opponents are hitting just .120 against Morton’s breaking ball, a pitch he throws 43.7% of the time. His curveball has the best run value of any in the league.
New York Mets
Game 1 opener: Denyi Reyes
With injuries to Justin Verlander, Jose Quintana and Carlos Carrasco, as well as Max Scherzer’s suspension, the Mets rotation is pretty thin. Thus, they will go with a bullpen game in Game 1, beginning with Denyi Reyes as the opener.
Reyes is a young arm with just 14 career innings at the Major League level. He has made five relief appearances this year and has yet to allow a run. He served as an opener once last season and allowed one run over 3 2/3 innings.
After Reyes, who has not pitched more than two innings in an outing this season, he will most likely get piggybacked with some combination of Jeff Brigham and Jimmy Yacabonis.
Game 2 starter: Tylor Megill
In the second game, New York throws out right-hander Tylor Megill, who has been up and down to start his career.
In his first two seasons, he experienced bad luck, with an xERA well below his actual ERA. This season, it has swung the other way. He has an ERA of 3.96 but an xERA of 6.55.
Despite an ERA that would be a career best, Megill's strikeout rate is way down and his walk rate is way up. He is allowing a .385 xwOBA, which is in the bottom 15% of the league. He has also struggled with the long ball, surrendering five home runs in five starts.
Braves vs. Mets Betting Pick
I give the Braves the pitching advantage in both matchups.
In Game 1, they obviously have a massive advantage with Strider, who has quickly established himself as one of the game’s best pitchers. Since joining the Braves rotation in May 2022, Strider ranks first among all pitchers in strikeout rate (39.3%), FIP (1.87) and xBA against (.175).
They also have the edge in Game 2. Not only is Morton’s 2.76 ERA more than a run better than Megill’s (3.96), but even Morton’s concerning 5.65 xERA is superior (6.55 xERA for Megill). Morton's strength is generating ground balls and the Mets have the fourth-highest ground-ball rate in the league.
At the plate, the Mets are in the bottom half of the league in both wOBA and wRC+. New York has just a .238 xwOBA against Strider and a .291 xwOBA against Morton.
The Braves have one of the best lineups in the game. They rank fourth in wOBA and sixth in wRC+ and have danger lurking from top to bottom. They're led by a resurgent Ronald Acuna Jr., who has returned to MVP form.
Megill is in the bottom 15% of the league in xwOBA and now has to face the lineup that ranks second in the league with a .354 xwOBA.
With the advantage the Braves have with their starting pitchers and at the plate, they are in a great position to come up with the sweep on Monday.
Doubleheaders are all about managing innings, and the Braves have two pitchers that have gone at least five innings in every start this year. Though both bullpens are rested after two days off, Atlanta has a big edge in the 'pen as well.
The Braves are massive favorites in Game 1, whereas Game 2 opened around even money. I think Atlanta has the advantage in the second game as well.
Since Game 1 should be fairly safe behind Strider, parlay both games if your book allows to get a better price on the Braves in the second game. If your book does not allow you to parlay both, then just play Game 2.
Pick: Parlay Game 1 & 2 Atlanta ML (+174) OR play Braves Game 2 ML. |
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