The Braves and Diamondbacks will enter this series flying high after series victories over division rivals. The Braves took two of three from the Phillies at home, while the Diamondbacks took two of three from the Padres in San Diego.
Now, the Braves have a three-game lead for the first NL wild card spot while the D'Backs are two games back of the Padres for the last wild card spot, but pulled even in the loss column a week before the All-Star break.
The Braves have been led by their strong pitching staff this season and are favored in today's series opener with Chris Sale getting the ball. The Diamondbacks will counter with right-hander Yilber Diaz, who will be making his MLB debut. Will the rookie be able to handle his nerves in his first start?
Read on for my three-leg MLB same game parlay (SGP) for Braves-Diamondbacks on Monday, July 8.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Braves vs Diamondbacks MLB Same Game Parlay: Monday, July 8
- Yilber Diaz 2+ Walks (-215)
- Atlanta Braves Over 4.5 Runs Scored (-120)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Parlay Odds: +460 (DraftKings)
Yilber Diaz 2+ Walks (-215)
Braves vs. Diamondbacks | 9:40 p.m. ET, MLB Network
Yilber Diaz arrives to the big leagues with two plus pitches- a mid-90s fastball that touches 98 and upper 70s curveball. Diaz used his stuff to compile 105 strikeouts in 76 innings across Double-A and Triple-A this season. That has helped him earn his first opportunity in Arizona.
However, he also has issued 38 walks thus far this season and 152 walks in 282 2/3 innings in his minor league career. That means he essentially walked one batter every other inning. Now, he will be facing the best and most patient hitters in the world.
Atlanta enters tonight's game ranked 24th in the MLB in walks and 22nd in walk rate. However, just yesterday, they faced another rookie starter in Michael Mercado for the Phillies. Mercado pitched just 1 2/3 innings, but he issued three walks. Mercado had 58 walks in his last 109 1/3 innings, a similar rate to Diaz.
Against another young starter with great stuff, but shaky command at this stage, I expect a patient approach from the Braves' lineup. Their slugging trio of Austin Riley, Matt Olson, and Marcell Ozuna each have a walk rate over 8.8%. They also may have opportunities to drive in runs tonight.
Atlanta Braves Over 4.5 Runs Scored (-120)
Braves vs. Diamondbacks | 9:40 p.m. ET, MLB Network
Yesterday, the Braves did not take advantage of Mercado's walks in the first inning, as they stranded the bases loaded. However, they did hit three home runs off him in the second inning before adding another solo shot in the sixth inning. The Braves have now scored at least five runs in each of their last three games, including games started by Aaron Nola and Ranger Suarez. They have also scored five runs in seven of their last nine games against Arizona.
Jarred Kelenic delivered the big blow yesterday with a three-run homer in the second inning. He has scored a run in six of his last 10 games batting leadoff. Ozzie Albies went hitless yesterday, but that snapped a nine-game hitting streak. He has six runs scored in his last four games. Kelenic and Albies both are capable of leaving the yard themselves, but they should set the table for Riley, Olson, and Ozuna.
After a cold start, Riley is back in his familiar third spot in the order. He has driven in a run in four of his last games. Olson also homered yesterday, while Ozuna is third in the MLB in runs batted in. Collectively, this group along with any contributions from the bottom of the half of the lineup should help the Braves score five runs today.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Braves vs. Diamondbacks | 9:40 p.m. ET, MLB Network
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. entered June hitting just .236. However, he has now raised his average up to .269 after hitting .337 in June and he has not cooled off in June either. He has recorded a hit in all five games he has played in July thus far, and in 13 of his last 15 games. In that span, he has reached two total bases in 11 of his last 15 games.
Gurriel has shown extra base power with 15 doubles, a triple, and 13 homers which has contributed to 54 runs batted in. However, he's also posted nine multi-hit games over this 15-game stretch. His matchup will not be easy tonight going against Chris Sale, but he has a double, triple, and home run among five hits against him lifetime. He has also feasted on left-handed pitching in general, hitting .357 with six doubles and five home runs in just 98 at-bats.
Gurriel has three doubles and three home runs in his 10 games and he has shown he can hit this line with two singles as well. Even against Sale, +140 is too much value to pass up in this spot.
