The Boston Red Sox (70-69) and New YorkMets (75-64) wrap up their three-game set at Citi Field on Wednesday. First pitch for Red Sox-Mets is set for 7:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SNY and NESN.
The Red Sox are 3-7 over their last 10 games, including an active four-game losing streak entering Wednesday, as their postseason hopes are fading. They are 10 1/2 games out of the AL East lead and 4 1/2 games out of the final AL wild-card spot. The Mets, who are going for a sweep of the Red Sox, are likely out of the NL East race, as they are 7 1/2 games out of first place. However, they are only a half-game out of the final NL wild-card spot and have won six games in a row.
I preview this MLB interleague finale below and make my Red Sox vs Mets predictions and F5 pick for Wednesday, September 4.
Red Sox-Mets Prediction
- Red Sox vs Mets picks: Mets F5 -0.5 (+124 | Play to +115)
My Red Sox-Mets best bet is on Mets F5 -0.5, where I see value at +124. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Mets Odds
| Boston Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+100 | 8 +105o / -125u | -1.5 +160 |
| New York Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-120 | 8 +105o / -125u | +1.5 -192 |
- Red Sox-Mets Moneyline: Red Sox +100 | Mets -120
- Red Sox-Mets Over/Under: 8 Total runs (+105o / -125u)
- Red Sox-Mets Run Line: Red Sox -1.5 (+160) | Mets +1.5 (-192)
Probable Starting Pitchers for Red Sox at Mets
| RHP Tanner Houck (BOS) | Stat | RHP Tylor Megill (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-9 | W-L | 3-5 |
| 3.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.7 |
| 3.12 / 4.15 | ERA /xERA | 4.82 / 4.26 |
| 3.34 / 3.63 | FIP / xFIP | 3.89 / 4.14 |
| 1.17 | WHIP | 1.39 |
| 14.1% | K-BB% | 16.4% |
| 55.6% | GB% | 38.5% |
| 109 | Stuff+ | 106 |
| 101 | Location+ | 96 |
Boston Red Sox at New York Mets Preview Prediction
Red Sox Betting Preview: The Book on Tanner Houck
Taking the mound for Boston will be Tanner Houck. Houck has been stellar in his first full Major League season, posting a 3.12 ERA while setting a career-high with 164⅔ innings pitched to this point. He has a 4.15 xERA, 3.63 xFIP, and 3.79 SIERA, so he has been a bit fortunate but still effective overall.
Houck has a Stuff+ of 109 and a Location+ of 101 this season. This has helped him to post a chase rate that ranks in the 74th percentile among qualified pitchers but hasn’t turned into misses inside the zone as he ranks in the 29th percentile in whiff rate and 36th percentile in strikeout rate. Houck’s control has been strong as he ranks in the 68th percentile in walk rate this year.
Houck has excelled at limiting hard contact and keeping the ball on the ground. He has an outstanding 55.2% ground ball rate, which ranks in the 93rd percentile. His barrel rate allowed is in the 82nd percentile because he keeps the ball on the ground despite ranking in the 24th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed and average exit velocity allowed.
The Red Sox rank 11th in wRC+ and sixth in wOBA this season. They have exhibited a ton of power, ranking fourth in ISO and fifth in SLG. However, Boston does have the third-highest strikeout rate in the league, at 25.2% and walks slightly less than average.
Boston ranks fifth in hard-hit rate, eighth in barrel rate, and 10th in average exit velocity. They also rank 18th in ground ball rate and have the sixth-highest line drive rate this season.
Mets Betting Preview: Spotty Command Holding Back Tylor Megill
Tylor Megill will get the nod for New York. The 29-year-old righty has a 4.82 ERA, 4.26 xERA, and 3.97 SIERA over 52 1/3 innings this season. Megill has a Stuff+ of 106 but a Location+ of only 96, which has held him back.
Megill ranks in the 61st percentile in whiff rate and 74th percentile in strikeout rate. However, he ranks in just the 24th percentile in walk rate, as he has issued a free pass 9.9% of the time. Megill has been battered this season, ranking in the 15th percentile in barrel rate allowed, 14th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, and 28th percentile in ground-ball rate.
The Mets rank seventh in wRC+ and 10th in wOBA. They’re also 8th in SLG, ninth in OBP and seventh in ISO — they are a top ten offense by most accounts. The Mets strike out and walk at rates near the league average and aren’t an outlier regarding plate discipline.
New York ranks sixth in hard-hit rate, sixth in barrel rate, and seventh in exit velocity. Their ground ball rate is slightly below the league average, which will be of note against Houck today.
Red Sox-Mets Prediction, Betting Analysis: First Five Innings (F5)
Megill hasn’t had the best season, but his underlying numbers suggest his production is expected to improve going forward. He has good stuff and matches this with strong strikeout numbers, which I believe will come into play against Boston.
Houck is a solid starter whose production has outmatched his peripherals this season. I believe that I view these two pitchers as being closer to each other than the market does, which is why I see value in backing the Mets in this matchup as they also have a better offense.
I think Megill and the offense give the Mets a good shot at holding an early lead.
Pick: New York Mets F5 -0.5 (+124 at DraftKings, bet to +115)
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Moneyline
The Mets are 37-33 overall at home this season while Boston is 39-31 on the road. The Red Sox are a good road team but New York has done a good job of defending their home field this season.
I still like the Mets in this game overall, and I think they also hold value in the full-game moneyline. I believe that this red-hot team should be a bit longer than -112, as they will have a chance to complete the sweep and win their seventh game in a row today.
Run Line (Spread)
The Mets are 36-34 against the spread at home this season. Boston is 38-32 ATS in road games as the market has been too low on both of these teams in this situation this year.
I don’t have a preference on the spread in this matchup as I believe it should be a tight game just as the market does. I don’t see value in lasting -185 on the Mets to keep it within 1.5 runs as there would be plenty of downside with this pick.
Over/Under
Totals are 35-35 at Citi Field this season, while Red Sox road games are 39-28-3 to the over.
I don’t have a specific lean on the total one way or the other. If I had to choose I’d likely lean towards the over. Neither of these bullpens are particularly great and I could see a scenario where both offenses put up a number of runs in the late innings as this total should probably be closer to 8.5 or 9 in my opinion.
Red Sox-Mets Betting Trends
- 74% of the bets and 77% of the money are on the Mets on the moneyline.
- 86% of the bets and 84% of the money are on the over.
- 63% of the bets and 52% of the money are on the Mets to cover the run line.
Red Sox Trends
- Red Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
- Red Sox are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Red Sox are 38-32 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Red Sox' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 32 of Red Sox' 69 last games at home
Mets Trends
- Mets are 5-0 in their last 5 games.
- Mets are 5-0 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Mets are 37-32 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Mets' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 35 of Mets' 70 last games at home
