The New York Mets host the Boston Red Sox on July 12, 2026. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on WPIX.
The Red Sox are favored by -120 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Mets are +102 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find our MLB picks and Red Sox vs Mets prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Red Sox vs Mets Prediction
- Red Sox vs Mets Pick: Under 8.5 (-122)
Our Red Sox vs Mets best bet is on the under total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Mets Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +132 | 8.5 -100o / -122u | -120 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 8.5 -100o / -122u | +102 |
- Red Sox vs Mets moneyline: Red Sox -120, Mets +102
- Red Sox vs Mets over/under: 8.5 (-100o / -122u)
- Red Sox vs Mets spread: Red Sox -1.5 (+132), Mets +1.5 (-160)
Red Sox vs Mets Probable Pitchers
| LHP Payton Tolle (BOS) | Stat | LHP Zach Thornton (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-6 | W-L | 0-1 |
| 1.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 3.14/3.08 | ERA / xERA | 4.35/5.44 |
| 3.37/4.12 | FIP / xFIP | 3.29/3.67 |
| 17.2% | K-BB% | 16.7% |
| 34.0% | GB% | 41.4% |
| .255 | BABIP | .286 |
| 114 | Stuff+ | 99 |
| 97 | Location+ | 91 |
Red Sox vs Mets MLB Betting Preview
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview
The Boston Red Sox wrap up their road series against the New York Mets at Citi Field on Sunday afternoon, looking to extend a dominant stretch of baseball.
Boston is currently riding an eight-game winning streak away from home, which anchors a broader, impressive surge where they have captured 13 of their last 15 games and 16 of their previous 21 matchups.
Sitting at 45-48 overall and holding a strong 28-21 record on the road, the Red Sox have already secured the first two games of this series with a 6-2 victory on Friday followed by a 4-0 shutout on Saturday.
Keeping the ball in the yard remains crucial for Boston, as they hold a tough 20-35 record in games where they surrender at least one home run.
On the mound for the visitors is Payton Tolle, who has provided deep, consistent outings by working at least six innings in five of his last seven starts.
Tolle enters Sunday's finale with a 5-6 record, pairing a sharp 3.14 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP with 80 strikeouts.
New York Mets Betting Preview
The hosting New York Mets find themselves at 40-56 overall and 21-27 in front of their home crowd, struggling to find consistency in the bottom tier of the NL East.
Offensively, the magic number for New York revolves around basic contact, as they boast a 31-16 record when registering at least eight hits in a game.
However, producing those hits has been difficult during their current 4-6 stretch, where they have been outscored by 21 runs while executing a team ERA of 6.55 over the last 10 games.
Looking to stop the bleeding, the Mets are turning to Zach Thornton. While Thornton sits at 0-1 on the year, he proved his efficiency in his second major league appearance on June 26 by firing six frames of one-run baseball.
He is slated to handle bulk pitching duties on Sunday afternoon to keep the Boston bats at bay.
Red Sox vs Mets Pick, Betting Analysis
For the final game of this series, the betting value aligns perfectly with betting Under 8.5 runs, a position strongly backed by the "Daytime Unders with Efficient Arms" betting system developed by analyst Evan Abrams.
This specific regular-season system targets afternoon games scheduled between 11:00 a.m. and 2:59 p.m. EDT, a window where unique midday factors like bright sun glare, shifting stadium shadows, and shorter recovery times between games naturally disrupt hitters and slow down overall game tempo.
The system utilizes strict visiting starting pitcher filters, specifically targeting arms with an ERA between 3.00 and 4.76 alongside a WHIP ranging from 1.07 to 1.39.
Payton Tolle fits squarely into this pocket, representing a highly efficient pitcher capable of mitigating damage without drawing overwhelming public notoriety.
On the other side, the system pairs this with a home offense that possesses a hit rate between 7.81 and 8.24 hits per game. The Mets fit this description perfectly, profiling as a steady but non-explosive offense that provides just enough consistency to limit high-scoring volatility without completely dominating the game.
By combining lower overall run totals with naturally calm daytime game paces, this angle uncovers a betting pocket where general public expectations routinely overshoot actual run output.
With Tolle showing excellent control and Thornton already proving he can suppress runs in bulk roles, expect a quiet afternoon for both offenses.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-122)
