The Atlanta Braves host the Boston Red Sox on May 16, 2026. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on BravesVsn.
The Braves are favored by -142 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Red Sox are +120 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Red Sox vs Braves prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Red Sox vs Braves Prediction
- Red Sox vs Braves Pick: Red Sox ML (+105 or Better) | Under 7.5 (+100 or Better)
My Red Sox vs Braves best bet is on Boston to win a low-scoring game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Braves Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -166 | 8 -104o / -118u | +120 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +138 | 8 -104o / -118u | -142 |
- Red Sox vs Braves moneyline: Red Sox +120, Braves -142
- Red Sox vs Braves over/under: 8 (-104o / -118u)
- Red Sox vs Braves spread: Braves -1.5 (+138), Red Sox +1.5 (-166)
Red Sox vs Braves Probable Pitchers
| Payton Tolle (LHP, BOS) | Stat | Bryce Elder (RHP, ATL) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | W-L | 31-14 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.3 |
| 2.78 / 1.99 | ERA / xERA | 1.81 / 2.90 |
| 2.79 / 3.19 | FIP / xFIP | 3.08 / 3.73 |
| 24.1% | K-BB% | 15.2% |
| 38.0% | GB% | 42.9% |
| .235 | BABIP | .230 |
| 111 | Stuff+ | 86 |
| 92 | Location+ | 101 |
Red Sox vs Braves MLB Betting Preview
While Payton Tolle was impressive with a 14.9 K-BB% over 16.1 major league innings in his debut last year, the team seemed to favor Connelly Early both in the postseason and early in the 2026 season.
Tolle simply posted a 24.6 K-BB% in three AAA starts (15 IP) and forced his way into the conversation after a couple of injuries, which may have been the best thing to happen to these Red Sox this year because he has carried a 24.1 K-BB% over to four major league starts since (22.2 IP).
The biggest improvement was cutting his walk rate from 10.9% to 6.9%. It’s a problem he never had in the minors.
Tolle doesn’t generate a lot of ground balls (below 40%), but he’s also kept his hard hit rates below 40% and generated tons of popups (7% of his major league contact so far).
Initially throwing 64.1% four-seamers in his cup of coffee in 2025, Tolle has picked up a sinker (it’s the Boston way) this season (23.7%) and cut his four-seam usage to 44.6%. It’s not as strong a pitch via pitch modeling, but it does give opponents, especially LHBs (37%), a fourth pitch which he throws at least 10% of the time.
Everything else he has been throwing to RHBs has worked plenty well enough in his short career (.286 wOBA, .285 xwOBA).
The Braves have mashed at home (118 wRC+) and also have a team 111 wRC+ vs LHP, but with Acuna IL’d, the projected lineup has just an 83 wRC+ against southpaws since last season, along with a mere .143 ISO.
Whether we want to admit it or not, Bryce Elder has improved as well.
Oh, pitch modeling still hates him plenty (4.81 Bot ERA, 90 Pitching+), even more than last year (4.68, 99), but he doesn’t have another estimator reaching four.
Elder’s K-BB against RHBs has increased by more than half from 13.1% in 2025 to 20.3% this year.
It’s still sinker/slider almost all the time against same-handed batters, but the latter has increased both vertical and horizontal break this year.
LHBs have a brand new cutter he’s using 17% of the time against them. While the K-BB% has only increased 2.2 points to 12.6% against them, the wOBA has dropped 75 points to .237.
We’ll see if he’s able to retain all of that or if pitch modeling is right. The 3.5% Barrels/BBE he’s allowed is likely unsustainable, but his hard hit rate has dropped below 40% for the first time since his rookie year (2022).
I still have Tolle as the better pitcher by nearly two-thirds of a run, but Elder probably has the better matchup against a Boston offense with a putrid 79 wRC+ against RHP. The projected lineup, though, at least has a 99 mark since last season.
We also have two of the top four defenses by Runs Prevented and OAA. The projected Atlanta defense’s 11 FRV is nearly doubled by Boston’s projected 21. The Red Sox also have a five BRR edge on the base paths.
Lastly, the Braves rank 13th in bullpen estimators over the last 30 days, while Boston ranks sixth. Both teams needed their closer in a close game on Friday night, Iglesias for 20 pitches, which could affect his availability for Saturday night, but Chapman for only 10.
Red Sox vs Braves Pick, Betting Analysis
We’re going to double dip in Atlanta on Saturday night.
Pick: Red Sox ML (+105 or Better) | Under 7.5 (+100 or Better)
