Blue Jays vs Tigers Odds & Predictions
| Toronto Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +158 | 8 -108o / -112u | -112 |
| Detroit Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -192 | 8 -108o / -112u | -108 |
Reese Olson was hit with a line drive his last start, but the young right-hander is back on the bump to start against the Toronto Blue Jays on Saturday. Olson has been great with keeping the ball on the ground. He allows some hard contact, but for many ground-ball pitchers that doesn't always hurt.
The Tigers' opponent will be José Berríos. The veteran right-hander has also allowed some hard contact, but as much as he can keep the ball on the ground, his numbers are not as impressive as Olson’s.
Both teams have been above average against righties and have options in relief. Let's break down why you should be looking for the home underdogs to take this one in our Blue Jays vs. Tigers prediction.
Toronto Blue Jays
Berríos is going to see negative regression at some point this season considering he holds a 2.97 ERA against a 4.87 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is over 91 mph with a Hard-Hit Rate that ranks in the eighth percentile. His ground-ball rate is above average, but it is not as impressive as Olson’s. In Berríos' first start in May, the Phillies torched him for eight earned runs. Detroit does not have the potent lineup that Philadelphia does, but that performance could be indicative of Berríos regressing to the mean.
Toronto holds a 106 wRC+ in the last month against righties with a 20.5% strikeout rate. The Blue Jays do have six bats above a .315 xwOBA, so much of the lineup is serviceable, but it drops off from there. The major takeaway here is that Olson’s ability to keep the ball on the ground will help against a Toronto lineup with one of the lowest ground-ball rates in MLB.
Toronto’s relief staff is also decent. In the last month, they have a 3.99 xFIP with an 8% walk rate and strikeout rate just over 20%. This could come into play, as the Tigers tend to strike out more than the Blue Jays. However, behind Berríos, the Blue Jays have five bullpen arms under the 4.00 xFIP mark, so they have backup if he exits early.
Detroit Tigers
Olson is the better of the two starters. While he will likely also face negative regression with a 2.17 ERA and 3.48 xERA, his Average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate are slightly better than Berríos’. In addition, Olson’s ground-ball rate ranks in the 88th percentile, and he allowed his first home run this season in his last start.
The Tigers own a 107 wRC+ in the last month off righties, with a 7.8% walk rate and 23.5% strikeout rate. Their issue is the bottom of the order. On the active roster, Detroit only has four bats over a .315 xwOBA off righties in that same timeframe. The Tigers will get the benefit of the weaker starter against them, but the kicker here is that Detroit hits the ball much harder collectively than the Blue Jays. They also do not have a very high ground-ball rate.
In relief, the Tigers have five arms under a 4.00 xFIP as a unit. They also own comparable strikeout and walk rates to Toronto’s relief staff. However, the edge may go to Detroit since Olson likely can pitch deeper into this game given his matchup.
Blue Jays vs. Tigers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Take Detroit at home with the starter who does not allow home runs. They have the relief arms for backup, if needed, and the Tigers' lineup can do just enough to keep the ball in the air and potentially force Berríos out of the game early.
