Blue Jays vs Orioles Odds & Predictions
| Toronto Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Spread |
+150 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +1.5 -140 |
| Baltimore Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Spread |
-178 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -1.5 +118 |
Few teams have underperformed more than the Toronto Blue Jays. After entering the 2024 MLB season tied for the fifth-lowest odds to win the AL Pennant, the Blue Jays are just 18-22 — only three AL teams have a worse record.
The young, hotshot Orioles have burst out of the gates to a 26-13 record and sit atop the AL East standings. Baltimore has a talented young core and a hired ace at the front of its rotation — that ace and former Cy Young winner, Corbin Burnes, gets the ball on Monday to kick off this three-game divisional series. The Jays, meanwhile, counter with their ace, Jose Berrios.
Blue Jays vs Orioles odds have the Orioles listed as -178 moneyline favorites, with an over/under of 7.5 (-110o /110u). Find my Blue Jays vs Orioles predictions — on the Orioles moneyline and an Adley Rutschman player prop — in my MLB betting preview below.
Toronto Blue Jays
On the surface, today's starting pitcher, Jose Berrios, has produced as much as Burnes. Berrios has a 2.85 ERA, just 0.02 higher than Burnes. Berrios has tossed 1/3 fewer innings, but the two have allowed an identical number of runs and homers.
Looking under the hood tells a different story. Berrios has a 4.91 expected ERA and has been walloped for a 49% hard-hit rate, the fourth-highest among qualified pitchers.
Berrios is primed for negative regression; we saw some in his last start. After seven starts allowing two or fewer runs, Berrios was tagged for eight in his previous outing against the Phillies.
Toronto's biggest issue is the lack of offense. Despite the talent at the top of their lineup, the Blue Jays rank 28th in runs scored, 25th in hits and 25th in homers this year. They're not hitting for contact or power.
Stars Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are slumping, although Guerrero has been much better lately. Still, Davis Schneider is the only player on the Blue Jays with an OPS above .755.
Baltimore Orioles
Burnes has posted an ERA under 3.40 in every season he’s been a starter and looks on his way to keeping that streak with a 2.83 ERA in his first season with Baltimore.
Burnes has allowed three or fewer runs in every start this season, and his 2.99 expected ERA indicates that should be sustained. He continues to rely on his elite cutter, allowing just a .180 average against the pitch.
A slight concern for Burnes is the decrease in his strikeout rate. He's striking out only 8.8 batters per nine innings, the lowest mark since his rookie year. However, he's throwing his curveball and slider more often and generating a career-high ground-ball rate.
I'm jealous of how fun this Orioles offense will be for the next decade. This year, they rank fourth in wRC+ and lead the league with 60 home runs. Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Colton Cowser, and Jordan Westburg are all younger than 27.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles
Betting Pick & Prediction
The negative regression for Berrios will continue. His strikeout rate is down, and he is allowing hard contact at an alarming rate. Berrios is also a guy who has always had pretty dramatic home and road splits. He's 50-31 with a 3.49 ERA and 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings at home, but 37-38 with a 4.71 ERA and 8.2 strikeouts per nine on the road.
Baltimore’s roster is batting .295 with a .383 wOBA lifetime against Berrios. Specifically, Rutschman has crushed Berrios. He is 10-for-16 with two doubles and a home run against Toronto's righty and has never struck out against him. So, I'm targeting Rutschman for player props on Monday.
Behind Berrios is a struggling bullpen. The Blue Jays rank just 25th in bullpen ERA, while Baltimore ranks top-five.
The Orioles have the advantage in starting pitching, the advantage in the bullpen, and the advantage at the plate. I’ll lay the big number with Baltimore at -170 or better.
